AS many as 30 Labour seats could be lost under plans to cut the number of Westminster constituencies, according to an analysis of the proposed changes.
The research, by Tory peer Lord Hayward, an elections expert, says some 200 Labour seats – 85 per cent of the party’s total of 230 - will be hit by the changes, which will see the number of MPs fall from 650 to 600. In Scotland, the number of seats is due to be reduced by six to 53, meaning at least four SNP seats will be lost.
The analysis further suggests Labour will "suffer most" as a result of the proposals; leading to claims of "gerrymandering" from the official Opposition.
Moreover, the prospect of reselecting candidates for redrawn seats ahead of the 2020 General Election could also throw up more internal strife for Labour given the already heated divisions between those in the centre and on the right of the party and those on the left supporting Jeremy Corbyn.
The boundary review, set to come into effect in time for the 2020 general election, is an attempt to reduce the size of the Commons in order to lower costs and create seats with similar numbers of constituents.
The Boundary Commissions for Scotland, England, Wales, and Northern Ireland are due to publish their proposals for the new constituencies during September.
In the case of Scotland, which already has some of the largest constituencies in the UK, the plans could produce super-sized constituencies, covering vast swathes of land although the rules are meant to limit the size of a constituency to 13,000 square kilometres.
Ahead of the boundary commissions’ official publications, Lord Hayward's analysis suggests that although most seats will be affected by the changes, Labour looks set to lose more MPs than the Conservatives as a result of the shake-up.
"The party that will suffer most is the Labour party because such a high proportion of their current seats are well below the required quota, particularly in Wales, the north-east and parts of the M62 corridor," Lord Hayward told The Guardian.
"This will have implications for large numbers of Labour MPs who may well have to compete against each other for reselection," he added.
The aim is to get the number of registered voters in each constituency to within five per cent of 74,769 ie between 71,031 and 78,507; the Western Isles, Orkney and Shetland and the Isle of Wight, all with much lower electorates, are excluded.
Some 43 out of Scotland’s current 59 seats fall outwith the desired range, including Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross with 47, 558 voters and Linlithgow and East Falkirk with 86,955 voters.
A higher proportion of Tory seats are currently within the range, so only between 10 and 15 of the party's seats are expected to disappear, the analysis indicates.
Lord Hayward's figures suggest that of the 50 seats that disappear, the Conservatives will lose between 10 to 15, which is 4.5 per cent of their total but Labour is on track to lose between 25 and 30, some 13 per cent of their current representation.
Some constituencies could turn from safe Labour seats to marginal ones, while other parties, including the SNP, will also be hit. The Nationalists won 56 of Scotland’s 59 seats last year, so can expect to be hit the hardest by the review north of the border.
Labour's work on the boundary review has been led by Dame Rosie Winterton, the chief whip, and her spokesman said the analysis was fresh evidence the policy was a "partisan" move to benefit the Tories.
The Opposition urged Theresa May to abandon the plan, arguing that the imminent loss of 73 MEPs as a result of Brexit would heap extra work on MPs.
Labour also highlighted the surge in numbers on the electoral roll as a result of the EU referendum, resulting in an extra two million registered voters who were not factored in to the boundary review.
"The Tories' plan to arbitrarily reduce the number of elected MPs by 50 had always been under the guise of reducing the cost of politics, even whilst they continued to cram the Lords at taxpayers' expense," Dame Rosie's spokesman said.
"Lord Hayward's comments - a key architect of the Conservative's boundary changes - that reducing the number of elected MPs by 50 will benefit the Tories' electorally, is further evidence that the sole motivation for these changes is a partisan plan to give the Tories' an unfair advantage at the expense of democracy. Simply put this is gerrymandering," he added.
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules hereLast Updated:
Report this comment Cancel