BREXIT will be so bad for the UK that the country will try to rejoin the European Union within a generation, the SNP’s Brexit minister has predicted.
Michael Russell also told MSPs there was a “high chance” the forthcoming Brexit negotiations would fail, and the Scottish Government was working on contingency plans.
He said any collapse would “probably happen sooner rather than later”, with the EU’s demand for a ‘divorce bill’ of between £50 and £85bn from the UK the most likely cause.
Theresa May recently restated her willingness to quit the talks with the other 27 EU nations, saying “no deal is better than a bad deal”.
That could mean the UK falling back on bare-bones World Trade Organisation rules and the introduction of tariff barriers with Europe.
Giving evidence to Holyrood’s European and External Affairs Committee, Mr Russell said: “I think the chances of the UK not sticking with the negotiations are high.
"I don't think they are necessarily 50 or 60 per cent but they're high… We would have to be prepared in those circumstances. We have a range of scenarios that we look regularly.
"You start probably with that issue and you work your way through hard Brexit with detriment to devolution, hard Brexit without detriment to devolution, moderate Brexit in which devolved powers are increased, through to independence, of course, which we believe is the offering that should be made.
"So we look at all of those and we have thought through some of the issues. But if there's going to be a collapse in negotiations it will probably happen sooner rather than later."
Mr Russell said EU leaders were "mystified and troubled" by the UK's decision to leave, but wouldn’t be “hectored and pressured" by the UK, as they had their own priorities to consider.
He said: “There are bigger issues. I actually think in 20 years time, if the UK does come out, in 20 years time the UK will be in the process of trying to be back in.
"And it will have lost 20 years influence and 20 years of progress and 20 years of prosperity."
The UK Government last month rejected Nicola Sturgeon’s plan for a bespoke Scottish Brexit, in which Scotland remained in the EU single market, as unworkable.
Ms Sturgeon says she wants Scots to vote in a second referendum by spring 2019 to choose between Brexit and the UK or a more pro-European independence.
However the Prime Minister has refused to agree, saying "now is not the time" given the Uk's focus on Brexit.
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