EUROPEAN nationals will not be able to “tip the balance” in Nicola Sturgeon’s favour, should the First Minister seek to hold a second Scottish independence referendum during the planned two-year transition period post Brexit, economists have suggested.
Unlike in general elections, many thousands of EU citizens resident in Scotland were able to vote in the 2014 poll thanks to a franchise set by the Scottish Parliament.
Last year, Richard Marsh and Fabian Zuleeg from the Scottish Centre on European Relations argued that a strong vote for independence from EU citizens resident in Scotland could have a “significant impact” on the outcome of another vote on Scotland’s future, should it take place before Britain left the EU. Indeed, they suggested if most EU residents voted for independence, it could “tip the balance” in favour of breaking away from the UK.
But now they point out in a blog entitled “EU Citizens’ Votes: Lost in Transition?” that European residents are likely to lose their right to vote during the planned post March 2019 transition period.
They explain: “This transition period will effectively be a stand-still period, ie EU rules and rights will still apply. However, politically, the UK will no longer be part of the EU institutions, implying that UK citizens will no longer vote for the European Parliament. At the same time, EU citizens in the UK are likely to lose their voting rights.
“Our report last year asked whether this would make a difference to the potential outcome of a Scottish independence referendum. It concluded if most EU citizens voted No in the 2014 referendum but would now vote Yes in a future referendum, it could have a significant impact: moving a cohort the size of the EU citizens [projected in 2020] from a No to a Yes vote would have been just enough to switch the result of the 2014 referendum, resulting in a 51 per cent Yes vote.”
Estimating there are around 200,000 EU nationals living in Scotland, the economists say the number is continuing to grow and, most likely, would continue to increase during the transition period, however long it might last.
“But if there is a Scottish independence referendum during the transition period, these EU citizens will, most likely, be excluded from voting. Given the number of people involved, this might well have a material impact on the outcome of such a referendum, reducing the chance of a vote for Scottish independence,” they add.
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