Labels are misleading.

England is in the "worst drought since 1976" even as the population dons sou'westers and starts building arks. Recession is another apocalyptic term, but it's a technical one too, so let's get caveats out of the way.

These are early estimates of a very slight fall in output. It's possible (probable, even) that they'll be revised upwards; even possible – just – they will edge into positive growth. Then we wouldn't have returned to recession. Feel better? No? Well, you shouldn't.

This is still dreadful news for the Government, already in terrible trouble, and especially Chancellor George Osborne, who recently claimed to have won the argument on deficit reduction. Worse, there is nothing in particular (such as the VAT rise or snow) to blame.

It allows Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls to maintain that stimulus would have encouraged growth – a claim even Keynes would have found mad. The figures show the opposite: governments cannot create growth, especially now the manufacturing and service sectors employ many fewer people.

But the private sector is not stepping forward to invest either.

The Prime Minister said you don't solve a debt crisis by increasing debt, yet that is what the Chancellor is doing. Quantitative easing was a waste of paper. Bailing out the eurozone hasn't worked. Debt is now (probably irrevocably) over £1 trillion, and rising. Public spending is still going up. There is still no Plan B, because the markets know there is no alternative to Mr Osborne's course. If you doubt it, look across the Channel, where things are even worse.