UK and Scottish Government ministers will meet next Thursday to try to come to an accommodation on Brexit as they prepare themselves for the ruling of the UK Supreme Court, which could be announced on the same day.
David Mundell, the Scottish Secretary, and Michael Russell, the Scottish Government’s Minister on the UK Negotiations on Scotland’s Place in Europe, met privately this week in London to lay the groundwork for the meeting of the Joint Ministerial Committee[JMC] on Thursday.
While relations are said to be cordial, the political divide between the two governments appears as great as ever. On the one hand, Edinburgh is demanding Scotland remain in the European single market, while, on the other, London is making clear there will be no separate deal for Scotland.
Court sources have made clear that there will be three days’ notice given before the 11 Supreme Court judges deliver their ruling. Therefore, if notice is not given by Monday, then it is almost certain the ruling will be delivered in the following week.
The expectation at Westminster is that the judges will uphold the earlier High Court ruling, that MPs should have a vote on the UK Government’s strategy before Article 50 is triggered by the end of March, but will reject the Scottish Government’s argument that Holyrood should also have a vote on the basis that foreign policy is reserved to Westminster.
A UK Government Bill, setting out the broad themes of Theresa May’s strategy, is already in place and is likely to be published within hours of the ruling being announced, should the High Court ruling be upheld.
Meantime, No 10 has made clear the Prime Minister still intends to chair the full plenary session of the JMC this month. Sources have indicated that it is likely to be on January 30 or 31.
Mrs May, during a joint press conference with her New Zealand counterpart, Bill English, said Britain would try to strike a free trade agreement with the Commonwealth country when it left the EU.
Her comments appeared to suggest that the UK would leave the EU customs union after Brexit so that it would be able to strike individual trade deals with other countries outside the tariff-free zone.
After a working lunch with Mr English at Downing Street, Mrs May said the two countries agreed on the potential for a "bold" new trading relationship after Brexit.
Liam Fox, the International Trade Secretary, is to visit the Commonwealth nation in the coming months to begin a bilateral dialogue between the two nations with the ultimate aim of striking a trade deal.
The small Oceanic country of less than five million people is believed to be seen in Whitehall circles as one of the best prospects for an early trade deal once Britain quits the EU.
The PM told reporters the two countries had a "strong and growing" trading relationship worth more than £3 billion a year. Britain is also the second largest foreign investor in New Zealand and its fifth largest bilateral trading partner, she said.
"As two island nations we know that trade is essential to the prosperity of our countries and so it's natural that we share a firm, deep-rooted belief in the power of free trade and open markets to drive economic progress and the importance of ensuring the benefits of growth are shared widely and fairly.
"While the UK remains in the EU we will work together to support an EU-New Zealand trade deal and we will also look to the future and how we can expand our trade and investment partnership.
"Through our new bilateral trade dialogue, we will push for greater global trade liberalisation and reform, share expertise, and identify ways to strengthen our own trade relationship.”
She added: "In the longer term we agree on the potential for a bold, new UK-New Zealand free trade agreement and I look forward to starting early discussions on this in due course."
Mr English said he wanted to see a trade deal concluded "as soon as possible" after Brexit and his country was the "ideal partner" for the UK to demonstrate its ability to secure a high-quality agreement.
He added: "We will seek a comprehensive and high-quality trade agreement because we know the benefits that free trade delivers; it helps create jobs, to raise incomes and delivers prosperity and opportunity at the level that New Zealanders and Britons deserve."
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