THERE is a seven in 10 chance of Scotland rejecting independence in September - according to the bookmakers.
Professor David Bell, a University of Stirling academic, has come up with the prediction based on odds offered by 23 outlets, which he studied between September last year and this month.
The economist, who has provided policy advice to the Scottish, Westminster and Irish Governments, said that studying betting markets could offer a more accurate prediction of the final outcome than opinion polls.
In his paper, The Independence Referendum: Predicting the Outcome, Professor Bell said accurate prediction markets were shaped by "well-informed, dispassionate traders or gamblers" keen to make a profit on their investment.
He found that bookmakers had predicted an 85 per cent chance of a no vote in September last year, with the probability falling to less than 60 per cent in April, before returning to 70 per cent by mid-May.
He said: "The use of prediction markets in relation to electoral outcomes is well established. Prediction markets have a good record in forecasting outcomes.
"Market outcomes tend to be more stable than the opinion polls. Differences in the way that samples are drawn by polling organisations, sampling errors, and differential delays in the publication of results may explain some of the variability in the opinion polls."
According to website oddschecker.com, the best price being offered for a yes vote is 11/4.
Meanwhile, bookmakers are offering odds of 1/3 for a no vote. More than 60 per cent of punters betting on the market have backed a yes vote in September.
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