NEXT month's European election will produce widely different results across the UK as voters are influenced by feelings of national identity, a major new study has found.
UKIP, who are only narrowly behind Labour in the battle for Euro election votes in England, are emerging as a party of English identity, according to the joint research project by the universities of Edinburgh and Cardiff and the IPPR think tank.
The study found that, in England, those who identified themselves as "more English than British" were more than twice as likely, 42% to 19%, to back UKIP than those who saw themselves as "more British than English". Similarly, one in five English voters believed UK leader Nigel Farage was the politician "who best stands up for the interests of England".
By contrast, only 1% of Scots felt he was the leader who "best stands up for the interests of Scots". Views in Wales were similar. The study also found significantly higher support in Scotland than England for the UK remaining within in the EU.
In England 37% wanted to stay in EU compared with 40% who wanted to leave. In Scotland 48% wanted to stay while 32% wanted to leave. The findings were based on a survey of more than 5000 people across the UK conducted by pollster YouGov between April 11 and 22. It found Labour was narrowly in the lead in England in the battle for Euro votes on May 22, with 30% support ahead of UKIP on 29%. In Scotland the SNP led Labour by 33% to 31%.
Professor Ailsa Henderson, head of Politics and International Relations at the University of Edinburgh and co-author of the study, said: "We now have clear evidence that national identity plays a key role in voters' views about Europe. It will affect the choices people will make in the May 22 elections and, in England, the way people would vote in any referendum on EU membership. These effects vary across Britain, with 'Scottish' and 'Welsh' identifiers backing entirely different parties from 'English' identifiers".
Professor Richard Wyn Jones, director of the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University and co-author of the study, said: "Although UKIP's name - the UK Independence Party - suggests it is aimed at those with a British identity, our research shows that it is the party of choice for those who identify as being more English than British."
He added: "There is now a significant chance that UKIP will top the European election poll in England. However, while UKIP are also currently on course to win an MEP in Wales, if the results of this research were repeated on 22 May, they would likely not win an MEP in Scotland. Such a result would highlight the political differences between the nations of Britain."
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