LEAVING the UK would cost Scotland the equivalent of between £266 and £916 per person, a think tank has warned.
Fiscal Affairs Scotland said an independent Scotland was likely to start life with a black hole in its finances of £5.1 billion to £8.6bn, or £946 to £1596 per person.
The figures are equivalent to an independent Scotland being £266 to £916 per person worse off compared with remaining in the UK, according to a report published by the think tank yesterday.
The figures were calculated using data and forecasts used by the UK and Scottish Governments to assess the possible state of an independent Scotland's finances.
Earlier this year, the UK Government produced a report claiming Scotland would be worse off by £1400 per person per year. In a rival study, the Scottish Government claimed the country would be £1000 per person better off by 2030.
Fiscal Affairs Scotland used cautious forecasts for oil revenues and an independent Scotland's likely share of national debt repayments to calculate its headline figures.
Using a wider range of estimates, considered less likely, the group said an independent Scotland could start life anywhere between £1033 per person better off or £1324 worse off compared with staying in the UK.
For Scotland to be relatively better off, the think tank said, an independent Scottish government would have to negotiate debt repayments of no more than half its population share and oil revenues would have to be nearly double the main Office for Budget Responsibility estimates.
John McLaren, the report's co-author, said: "Our narrower range suggests that, in 2016/17 an independent Scotland would be in a worse fiscal position than the UK by the equivalent of around £250 to £900 per person."
He added that uncertainty around future North Sea revenues and the share of UK debt that Scotland would inherit could offer outcome where Scotland could end up better or worse off."
Scottish Labour MSP Jackie Baillie said: "The reality is that leaving the UK means putting our schools and hospitals at risk."
A Scottish Government spokeswoman said: "This report contains no new figures, however it does confirm that even on the UK Government's worst-case scenario an independent Scotland would start life in a healthier financial position than we were as part of the UK in the last year."
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