• Text size      
  • Send this article to a friend
  • Print this article

New report claims Yes vote could hit stocks

Scottish independence could have significant consequences for the value of stocks across a broad range of industries, a report from market analysts has found.

Companies such as RBS, Lloyds, BAE Systems and Diageo are among those who could experience an "adverse reaction" to a Yes vote, it states.

The report by Barclays, Scottish Independence: Implications for Equities, considers the potential implications of independence for publicly-listed companies.

It states: "A Yes vote in support of Scottish independence on September 18 could have a modestly negative impact on the UK stock market."

The report notes that "independence would present several companies with significant challenges", but it also acknowledges potential benefits for other firms.

"Our analysis points to 10 key areas of potential impact for companies, ranging from the likely currency regime to pensions, labour cost, taxation and procurement. We then go on to analyse how these could affect major sectors," it says.

"To do this we have undertaken a comprehensive review of public statements by key industry leaders and combined them with the assessments of our own analysts."

It adds: "On balance, our work shows that a "yes" vote could have significant consequences for stocks in the banks, oil, defence, beverage, transport, business services, asset management, insurance, utility, property and industrial sectors.

"More precisely, based upon companies' public statements and our analysts' assessments, we have identified the following stocks with potential for an adverse reaction to a "yes" vote: BG Group, Wood Group, RBS, Lloyds, Diageo, BAE Systems, Babcock, SSE, Aggreko, Weir Group and Standard Life."

"On the other hand, the following companies could experience a beneficial impact from Scottish independence: easyJet, Ryanair and IAG, as a result of the Scottish Government's commitment to halve air passenger duty, and London-based property companies such as Derwent, Great Portland Estates, and Berkeley Group."

A spokesman for Scotland's Finance Secretary, John Swinney, said: "Scotland is one of the wealthiest countries in the world - more prosperous per head than France, Japan and the UK itself - but we need the powers of independence to make the most of our huge resources, for example by encouraging tourism and trade through lowering Air Passenger Duty.

"An independent Scotland will be a hugely attractive place to do business and to invest in, which is just one of the reasons why a currency union will be agreed."

Contextual targeting label: 
Business

Commenting & Moderation

We moderate all comments on HeraldScotland on either a pre-moderated or post-moderated basis.
If you're a relatively new user then your comments will be reviewed before publication and if we know you well and trust you then your comments will be subject to moderation only if other users or the moderators believe you've broken the rules

Moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours. Please be patient if your posts are not approved instantly.

251307