SCOTLAND would face a "rocky road" to independence as the rest of the UK bargained hard in any post-Yes vote talks, a leading political expert has warned.
Professor Anthony King, of Essex University, dismissed Alex Salmond's claim that the Edinburgh Agreement, the formal deal which paved the way for a legally binding referendum, guaranteed the UK's goodwill in negotiating an independence settlement.
He also suggested the First Minister's 18-month timescale to move from a Yes vote to a declaration of independence was unrealistic.
The politics professor and polling expert set out his views in a blog for the Future of the UK and Scotland website.
He said people in England and Wales would feel "miffed" if Scotland voted to leave the UK and UK ministers would be "applauded" if they bargained hard over issues, such as currency arrangements and dividing the national debt, which needed to be resolved.
He said: "My prediction is that, if the Scots were to vote "Yes" in September, the road to independence would almost certainly be rocky - and the ultimate destination might never be reached. In all his public pronouncements, Alex Salmond gives the impression that the Scottish government, during the negotiations following a Yes vote, could count on the UK government's goodwill.
"My hunch is that he is wrong and that during those negotiations Scottish ministers would find their UK counterparts very hard bargainers indeed."
He said the Edinburgh Agreement contained "fine phrases" committing a newly independent Scotland and the rest of the UK to treat each other with mutual respect but left "both governments free to negotiate in any manner they choose".
Mr Salmond's claim that talks could be concluded in time to declare independence in March 2016 was "at the very least doubtful" given the complexity of separating the UK's tax and social secturity systems.
He added: "Whatever the Edinburgh Agreement may say, the interests of Scotland and the rest of the UK by no means coincide.
A Scottish Government source said: "Scotland will have an extremely strong hand to play in the post-Yes vote negotiations, especially given our share of natural resources and the fact Westminster has already accepted it will remain legally liable for debt up to the point of independence.
"In any case, it will be in everyone's best interests for negotiations to be completely as swiftly and amicably as possible, in line with the commitments given in the Edinburgh Agreement."
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