SCOTTISH becoming an independent country would be Britain's greatest humiliation since the loss of the American colonies in the 1780s at the hands of George Washington and could lead to the Coalition government falling, according to a paper by one of the UK's top defence experts.
Professor Malcolm Chalmers, director of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), says a Yes vote would leave the rest of the UK "in a state of humiliation and existential crisis" which could sour negotiations over the split of assets with Scotland.
In an article for the RUSI Journal titled "Dissolution and Defence: Scotland's Armed Forces after a Yes vote", Prof Chalmers says: "In the aftermath of what would, arguably, be the country's greatest humiliation since the loss of the American colonies, some senior officials believe that the resignation of the current Coalition government would be a strong possibility. The peoples of England, Wales and Northern Ireland are likely to have little sympathy for any policies seen as too accommodating to their Scottish cousins".
He also says the UK and Scotland would have different approaches to post-Yes talks, dragging them beyond the SNP's 18-month timetable.
Crucially, he says the UK would want to keep the Trident nuclear deterrent based on the Clyde for up to 15 years as part of a "grand bargain", whereas the SNP would like to agree the key terms in outline, and then finesse Trident. But he also says Trident - for which there is no other base in the UK - would be "a bargaining chip of considerable value" to Scotland and could be "the key to open the way to a smooth transition to independence".
He says the SNP's broad defence plans are credible, but warns the future of the Clyde shipyards could be grim, as the UK would switch its warship purchases to English yards like Southampton.
An SNP government spokesman said: "Independence will give Scotland the opportunity to develop specific defence capabilities that better meet Scotland's needs and circumstances."
Tom Gordon
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules hereComments are closed on this article