An independent Scotland would have the second highest deficit among "advanced economies" in its first year, according to an analysis by the UK Treasury.
The fiscal deficit of 5.5% in 2016-17 would be equivalent to £9.5 billion, or £1,760 a head, the calculations suggest.
The total would be about £1,000 more than the UK deficit per head in the same year, the Treasury says.
The prediction contradicts Scottish Government estimates of a deficit between 2.5% and 3.2%.
Treasury officials looked at data from bodies including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR).
They place Scotland just behind the US at the top of the league for size of deficit, and five places above the UK.
Chief Treasury Secretary Danny Alexander said: "Our analysis of the IMF's data shows that an independent Scotland would have the second highest deficit of any advanced economy in the first year of independence and more than £1,000 per person higher than the UK's deficit.
"This would be a great risk to the Scottish economy, and would mean higher tax bills and cuts to public services to balance the books.
"All these reports confirm that both the UK and Scotland would be worse off apart. Being part of the larger UK economy provides Scotland with jobs, stability and security. Independence would mean higher taxes and lower spending on public services."
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