Scottish Labour is very unlikely to win back the voters it lost to the SNP during the independence referendum in time for the general election, two new surveys suggest.

 

People who voted for independence have coalesced around the SNP and their vote is hardening, while Labour has become a party for No voters and its standing amongst nationalists has plummeted, analysis by the British Election Study (BES) has found.

Labour election co-ordinator Douglas Alexander said today that winning a majority will be "difficult but do-able", following a new YouGov poll for The Sunday Times which found that Labour has surged into a four-point lead across the UK.

But 1,300 Scottish voters polled by BES between March 6-13 puts Labour 17 points behind the SNP in Scotland, with the SNP on 44per cent and Labour on 27per cent.

Its findings are supported by a Scottish snapshot in the Sunday Times poll conducted on March 27-28, which puts the SNP on 46per cent and Labour on 33per cent amongst the 159 Scottish voters polled.

The BES report, by Jane Green and Chris Prosser, said: "It is Labour's hope that the losses it has seen to the SNP are temporary, and that those voters will come back to Labour in six weeks' time.

"Our data suggests that while not impossible, that prospect is very unlikely.

"Almost 90per cent of Scottish Labour voters are No voters and an equivalent 91per cent of SNP voters are Yes voters.

"This polarisation happened because of the movement of Yes voters away from Labour to the SNP and occurred between June and September 2014."

BES sees no way back for former Labour voters and also found the haemorrhage to the SNP is continuing apace.

"The proportion of Yes voters intending to vote SNP in September 2014 was 70per cent. That figure now stands at 79per cent.

"This trend is a worrying one for Labour in Scotland. Less than two months from the general election Yes voters are still moving to the SNP."

Labour defectors have also become more entrenched in their positions as SNP loyalists, BES found.

"This again is a worrying sign for Labour," it said.

"It suggests that Labour-SNP vote switchers are no more moveable than SNP loyalists."

The Paisley and Renfrewshire South MP told Andrew Marr's show the SNP is trying "to drive up the Tory vote in England" to deliver an unpopular Tory government that will boost support for independence.

"This is a winnable election for Labour. It is difficult, but it is certainly do-able that we can get a majority."