NATIONALISTS cannot stop smiling at Westminster.

While they insist they are not counting electoral chickens, a smug confidence appears to be taking hold.

And who could blame them? For weeks now, the opinion polls have been telling us the same story: SNP up, way up; Labour down, way down.

The Ashcroft poll is somewhat different to others because it focuses on just a quarter of individual seats but, once again, it makes grim reading for the ubiquitous Jim Murphy and his colleagues, who, in electoral terms, are trying to speed-climb Mount Everest in blizzard conditions.

Because of the regularity of the polling results, Labour insiders are no longer shocked or shaken when the numbers suggest a meltdown at the General Election. They shrug their shoulders and declare: "We know we're in a fight but we're up for it." One even claimed, unconvincingly, the party liked being the underdog. Such bravura does not mask deep concern.

Yet the latest snapshot would unsettle Labour's generals more than ever because the onetime party bastion of Glasgow looks set, if the latest numbers are right, to be stormed by Nicola Sturgeon and her SNP battalions.

The numbers show an overall swing of 25 per cent, which would mean goodbye to the likes of such frontbench figures as Douglas Alexander, Labour's campaign chief, Margaret Curran, Gregg McClymont and Cathy Jamieson.

The swing ranged from 21 per cent in Airdrie & Shotts to 27 per cent in Dundee West. Based on the former swing, Labour would lose all but six of its current contingent of 41; it is not calculated how many it would lose on the latter but a wipeout must be possible.

Yet there is hope for Labour. Given the size of some of its majorities, a large swing to the SNP suggested by the Ashcroft poll would not put the Nationalists that far ahead - just three points in Glasgow South West and Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill, and six points in Glasgow North West.

Also, Labour could believe the Nationalist surge is not as strong in those areas that rejected independence in the referendum and were not polled by the Tory peer like Edinburgh, Fife and South Lanarkshire.

If Labour is down-hearted by the numbers, spare a thought for the Liberal Democrats, who are facing their own Scottish wipeout on May 7.

To no one's surprise, the Ashcroft poll suggested Alex Salmond, the former First Minister, would take Gordon but also that Danny Alexander, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, would lose his Inverness seat.

The snapshot also noted a mere 12 per cent of the party's 2010 supporters said they would vote Lib Dem again; nearly half, 47 per cent, said they would switch to the SNP.

A senior Lib Dem source admitted, realistically, the party was looking at losing half its Scottish contingent of 11 MPs.

But he rightly noted imposing a uniform swing on all seats was an unwise thing to do because it did not take into account the personal factor of incumbent MPs.

With just three months to go, one seasoned Westminster source observed: "The Nationalists can't lose. Either they win enough seats to hold the balance of power with a minority Labour government or the Tories hang on, possibly with the help of Ukip, and bring the day of another referendum nearer."

ENDS