'If vote is Yes, there would be an acute sense of loss'

Many here were born in Scotland. David Hume's grandmother is buried there, in Bellshill, Lanarkshire.

"When I'm in Scotland I just feel at home," he says. "The psyche is very similar. The south east of England is all very nice but it doesn't feel like home. Here, we can see Scotland every day and have our roots in the Scottish settlements."

Dr Hume is the source of one of the Referendum debate's more maverick statements.

The Grand Orange Lodge of Ireland's most senior official, he called for those of 'Ulster-Scots' heritage to be given the vote on September 18. The Ulster Scots, he claimed, were the first unifying force in Scotland in the Sixth Century and "later extended Scottish influence to Ireland in the Seventeenth Century".

It was, he says in hindsight, merely raising a point. "I was saying this could also have a big impact on us in Northern Ireland. If it's Yes, we'll be almost divorced. There'd be an acute sense of loss."

The cemeteries across Antrim and Down are testament to the Scots who have been arriving in Ulster for centuries. McAllister, Hamilton, Campbell, McClelland, McNutt, Taggart, Shaw.

Dr Hume's community near Larne was settled in 1609 by planters from Stirlingshire. Sir Hugh Montgomery, Sir James Hamilton and Sir Randall MacDonnell, agents of James I of England, led the colonisation of this part of Gaelic Ulster with Lowland Scots Presbyterians.

Save a spasm of French-inspired radicalism in the late Eighteenth Century, the Presbyterians of Ulster have thought themselves the most loyal subjects of the Crown, at times even prepared to rise against the Westminster Government of the day to retain their birthright.

From providing labour in the industrial revolution to ship building on the Clyde, and the Loyal Order links to the thousands who travel to watch Rangers FC every week, the connections are long and deep.

However, many of the old certainties have gone for the 'Protestant-Unionist-Loyalist' (PUL) community; their privileged position in politics and employment eroded by wider societal changes, ex-Republican paramilitaries in Government, and sectarian head counts, which largely pass as democracy here, expected to deliver a Catholic majority within a generation.

An end to the UK as we know it would be an existential blow.

Dr Hume says: "People can't envisage Scotland leaving the Union. They can't conceive it will become independent. There are family and social links and they feel so strongly about it remaining within the UK. It's an all or nothing scenario.

"It would be as if an invisible boundary emerged in the North Channel, a psychological barrier."

Northern Ireland has a different Unionism to that making the case for No in the Referendum, says East Antrim MP, the DUP's Sammy Wilson, aware his particular brand is not always appealing, acceptable even, to mainstream Scotland.

"In Scotland your biggest pro-Union party is Labour, some of whom are very socialistic indeed. You could say there's no affiliation politically with our brand of unionism. But the lowest common denominator is we appreciate we're better off in the Union."

The Ulster connection shows up in the most ironic of places too. Wilson says: "To a certain extent Alex Salmond does have a lot of Ulster mannerisms. He also brings a humour people can't often understand outside and that's why he connects with many people. I can see many of Ian Paisley's traits in Salmond."

Until recently the Referendum has barely registered on Northern Ireland's agenda. Wilson and his party leader Peter Robinson have spoken out against it several times, but mostly for internal consumption. There has been a reluctance by political parties to get involved, says the former Northern Ireland Executive finance minister.

"It would then be seen as transferring our difficulties to Scotland and that doesn't help the case. It's not about not caring about the outcome. We're wary of outside interference and this is for the people of Scotland."

But while Wilson believes there has been some complacency about the Referendum he does not believe a Yes vote would have a huge impact.

"There'll be no huge campaign to leave the UK here," he says. "The conventional wisdom is it would weaken the Union. But more Nationalists are now more comfortable with the UK in Northern Ireland."

Outside Wilson's surgery on the Monkstown estate, just north of Belfast, Saltires fly alongside murals of monarchs, the First World War and paramilitary flags. It may be Marching Season but this year the Cross of St Andrew is much more conspicuous than usual. Throughout the summer's parades, Scottish bands and Lodges have been sporting 'Naw' tee-shirts and promoting the No message.

On the Shankill Road, synonymous with grassroots Loyalism, Scotland's flag adorns the site of a memorial to five people murdered in a pub.

John McVicker runs the local newspaper based directly opposite and talks a lot of the "natural connectivity" with Scotland.

But how much do people on the Shankill 'really' know what's going on in 2014 Scotland?

"As much as they want to know", he says. "If they've family connections they'll be more in tune with what's going on. But they've enough going on in their own lives and there's enough going on here.

"When you drill down to what people think they may mention stuff about oil or tax-raising powers. Or they might ask what will happen with the Scottish regiments."

Those in the area who watched the recent debates see Alistair Darling "as Labour's John Major" who "doesn't speak to how Joe Public here thinks of Scotland".

McVicker's father came from Glasgow's Maryhill and other relatives have served in Scottish regiments. He himself is active in the local British Legion and is behind a memorial to three young Royal Highland Fusiliers murdered nearby by the IRA in 1971.

McVicker says: "Scottish regiments have added resonance. If you go on to the road they'll be able to tell you the background and names of the three Jocks murdered in Ligoniel."

And if Alex Salmond came in for a drink at his local bowling club? "There'd be the potential connection in people's minds between the SNP and Irish nationalism. Some people would certainly see them as being as dangerous to the future of the UK as the IRA ever were."

The First Minister of Scotland is not without his admirers within political Unionism though. Lee Reynolds is a DUP councillor, senior policy strategist and Ulster-Scots enthusiast. Underestimate Salmond at your peril he warns.

"In my view Salmond is the politician of the mainland parties, with the best political skills. I don't like him or his politics but I appreciate his talents. Right now mainstream politics is cursed with empty suits. He's not that."

Unconvinced of the merits of the Better Together message, Reynolds, who as a 21-year-old student challenged Ulster Unionist stalwart Jim Molyneaux to lead his former party, believes the under-estimation of the Yes side could cost the Province.

He is also one of the few within Unionism talking about the impact of a No vote on the North and the potential for a squeeze on finances. The consequences could also be far-reaching and turn up in strange places.

"If Scotland leaves, as does much of the UK's oil, does that mean fracking is more likely to happen here", he asks.

"There would still be a migration of students from Northern Ireland to Scotland but what would the policies in an independent Scotland be regarding our students?"

Ironically though, Reynolds sees what's happening across the water as a compliment to progress at home, even if interventions from local politicians don't help.

He said: "It goes to show how far Northern Ireland has come that Scotland is now seen as the Union's weak link, not us. But too often Unionism uses apocalyptic language and that's not helpful. A Yes vote would be entirely democratic so I don't see how an upsurge in dissident Irish Republican activity would follow. There's too much looking at Scotland through our prism."

Despite the geographic proximity and cultural, historic and emotional, many Unionists have their heads firmly in the sand, according to some.

Alex Kane is one of Northern Ireland's leading commentators on Unionism. He believes most within the PUL population have "closed themselves off" to the prospect of Independence and will react with "blind panic" if it's Yes.

A former director of communications at the Ulster Unionist Party, Kane said: "This will have an enormous impact on Unionism yet they've made up their minds it'll be No and don't believe there's need to debate the issue. They haven't grasped the seriousness and that's both the historic illiteracy of what happens in Scotland and the current dynamics."

According to Kane, ironically those preparing best for both eventualities on September 19 are Republicans, who have said next to nothing publicly.

"Sinn Fein wants to have the debate when the result is through. Unionism just expects a No vote, gave Republicans the two fingers and say 'issue closed'.

"They've prepared nothing. If its Yes they'll go into a blind panic, while Sinn Fein and the SDLP will have thought this through and have a raft of positions.

"What's disappointed me is at no point have those Unionists engaged with Scotland said: 'Let's sit down over a few days, think about this and how we'll respond.'.

"Unionism doesn't do forward thinking. We don't prepare. 'The impossible can't happen' is the line. Well, it can."

'I believe it's in Scotland's best interests to go it alone'

A YES vote on September 18 and the potential blow to the morale of Ulster Unionism does not translate as a boost towards a united Ireland, a prominent Republican has said. Danny Morrison was Sinn Fein's director of publicity for over a decade, coming to prominence during the 1981 Maze Prison protests when he was spokesman for Bobby Sands, one of 10 Republican hunger strikers to die. A one-time editor of the Republican News, it was from his 1981 speech at Sinn Fein's annual conference that the famous term 'Armalite and ballot box strategy' derived.

Now a full-time writer, he no longer has a frontline role in the Republican Movement but remains close with its leadership.

We meet at 'The Felons', or The Irish Republican Felons Club, the favoured haunt of IRA ex-prisoners in West Belfast for 70 years.

Republicans have stayed quiet, near silent in fact, on the Independence Referendum. Why?

"The concern Sinn Fein has is that if it says anything it won't be taken on its own merits. It would quickly become 'the IRA supports Alex Salmond'", he says.

But, he says, the Nationalist community sympathises with the Independence campaign, "not just for selfish reasons, they've read the arguments and they know how Republicans have had problems with Tory Governments in the UK".

"The UK will have governments dominated by Tories and Scotland feels this is worth going it alone for," adds Morrison.

"I believe it's in their best interests to go it alone. They've been robbed off their North Sea oil which has been ploughed into the English state. It's fascinating for Nationalists here to watch the bullying language coming from Westminster parties over the currency issue in the Referendum.

"The UK Government has in its favour the status quo and can throw in the benefits of the Union with a mix of blackmail."

One theory is a Yes vote would be an accelerant to a united Ireland, something which concerns the political establishment in Dublin. Sinn Fein President Gerry Adams has repeatedly called for a 'Border Poll' in running in tandem in the North and the Irish Republic.

At very least, Scottish Independence forces Irish unification onto the agenda. Morrison is not so sure.

He says: "Unionists will see that if one part can cut away from the UK then another part can do likewise. A Yes vote would be demoralising for Unionists and increase their fragility. They've already subscribed to majority rule but appreciate they don't have the status as Yorkshire and the future of the north isn't written in stone.

"But I don't believe a Yes vote substantially alters our prospects. It would certainly have a have a greater effect on Unionist morale than a positive effect for Republicans."

Republicans though may be in a no-lose situation, believes Professor John Brewer of Queens University Belfast. A professor of Post Conflict Studies, he reckons enhanced devolution from either a No or Yes vote would suit Sinn Fein. He says: "Within Republicanism, at the extreme end of the spectrum there's a view that a Yes vote will cause the Orange Order around Glasgow to engage in some sort of sectarian violence, similar to what we see here.

"Yes, some predict, will have implications for Northern Ireland because there will be civil war in Glasgow. That's Horlicks but people here are trying to grasp this issue by seeing it fully through the lense of Northern Ireland.

"Other Republicans see it much more positively and as having huge implications for Stormont, as enhancing and promoting future devolution here. For them future devolution isn't problematic. That's part of the normalisation of Republicanism and a way to desensitise the border."