Other Voices: the business case for a Yes vote

First, there's the myth of limited information for business about independence. There are uncertainties with any choice we make as a country. I believe it was the philosopher François-Marie Arouet who said 'uncertainty is an uncomfortable position. But certainty is an absurd one.'

There is an abundance of information and no more uncertainty with a Yes vote. We have in the 'Scotland's Future' Independence White Paper a readily available, detailed and fully costed way forward for the nation. By contrast, the information from Prime Minister David Cameron on Scotland's future after a No vote is conspicuous by its absence.

As one respected business commentator pointed out recently, business needs firm answers on what powers will sit in which jurisdiction, the likely levels of taxation, forthcoming changes to the regulatory set-up and, of course, the elephant in the room - EU membership.

With a No vote, we have no idea what the implications will be of companies paying different taxes to different bodies in the UK under some form of devo-plus arrangement.

There is no guarantee that Scottish exports won't face the burden of a trade barrier to continental Europe. We do not know whether Scotland's pension and insurance firms will be able to serve customers on the continent or in Ireland without additional cost if Britain leaves the EU. We do not know what terms David Cameron is going to agree as he continues his negotiation with German Chancellor Angela Merkel on the UK's membership of the EU. Can he guarantee Scottish financial services firms won't be subject to new EU regulatory requirements including limitations on tax subsidies? We simply do not know enough about the UK's direction of travel - yet business yearns for simple and credible answers.

Another myth suggests the independence plan does not include any form of risk assessment. In fact, all the economic scenarios and associated policies for growth include downside and upside risk assessment, including, for example, the impact of a further Eurozone crisis on the likes of oil prices. Independent experts spend much of their time analysing and factoring in exactly these kinds of risk on behalf of the politicians.

Likewise, companies can assess risks and opportunities in liaison with investors. And they do not need to publish the conclusions indirectly or directly. They can look at the questions posed without breaching their fiduciary duty by placing the corporate brand at the centre of a democratic political debate.

Of course, to fairly and properly conduct internal analysis, business needs information from both sides of the debate. We can all debate the pluses and minuses of particular measures in the independence plan but at least we know what they are.

The lack of any plan from the No Campaign is the single largest obstacle to credible and objective due diligence. It is also a major reason why the Yes Campaign has the momentum right now.

In my experience, financial markets are neither secretly concerned about independence nor unwilling to say so in public. Of course, there's the odd land or property agency looking for an excuse for why it can't sell an asset, usually at the high end of the market, but those are few and far between. And individual companies have raised specific issues which the Scottish Government seeks to address in a collaborative way.

The recent comments of Barclays CEO Anthony Jenkins sum up well what most big business believes. It operates across borders all around the world; what matters most is not the location of brass plates but the extent to which a domestic policy environment is supportive of business.

The No Campaign initially said market worries about independence were undermining investment. Then as money continued to flood into Scotland at record levels (up 49% now), they changed their tune. Now we're told investors are worried and relaxed at the same time because they think independence is unlikely. Except the polls have continued to move towards Yes and smart risk analysts know the unpredictability of a referendum.

So, just maybe, independence is actually a minor factor in the vast majority of investment decisions. Or, just maybe, as Ernst and Young suggest, independence is actually boosting Scotland's global brand and thereby inward investment.

In today's world, many large companies work successfully across countries all around the world. This is the nature of the globalising economy. They adjust to democratic change. The money goes where there is more money to be made. Indeed, the wiser businesses are already on to the opportunities of independence, including, for example, the management of a new oil fund by financial services firms.

Just because the metropolitan media or partisan business representatives claim businesspeople are raising concerns with them doesn't mean it's true. Nor does it mean that complaints are objective or genuine, especially in the context of reports that the UK Government is intimidating and using the 'dark arts' to lean on businesses to speak out against Scottish self-determination.

Those who have stepped out of the London bubble to properly research the debate are either relaxed or motivated by the opportunities. They have worked out what's actually on offer to the electorate as opposed to what self-interested MPs in London tell them (including those who will lose their salaries is Scotland votes Yes).

We simply must separate genuine and fair questions from calculated agendas. There have been a handful of company executives entering the debate quite clearly because they take issue with some other aspect of Scottish Government policy.

Like the supermarket levy (changed anyway), minimum alcohol pricing, opposition to nuclear energy or re-nationalisation of the Post Office. I'm not sure that the smartest way to influence other aspects of Scottish or UK public policy is through opposition to Scottish independence or, even worse, political deal-making with David Cameron. If I was a London businessman, I think I'd give the Downing Street special advisers a wide berth!

I'm the first to say the business sector in its many forms has an important voice in the democratic discourse, but voters should be wary of the motivations, responsibility or wisdom of some.

Investec's Head of Research John Haynes has described any 'nervousness' about independence in UK stock markets as 'not very pronounced'. Of course, in this time of continued economic dislocation, there is the risk of a self-fulfilling prophecy.

If enough partisan business representatives and commentators with a subjective agenda tour the City promoting worries about the result of the referendum, there's a chance uncertainty will rise, none of which will do anything to help grow the Scottish economy.

These remain tough economic times, although the growing strength of Scotland's economy should fill us all with more confidence about our independent future.

We wait to see whether the No Campaign proposes a plan for devolution of welfare, corporation tax, oil revenues and VAT but no devo-plus proposal gives any Scottish politician the tools or incentives required to reduce tax on business, not least because the revenue base is still substantially controlled at Westminster.

In fact, upon closer inspection the independence plan offers Scots the best of both worlds - proximity and unfettered access to London as a global city but the powers to compete at home. The City is at least in part a reflection of the UK economy as a whole. Wiser heads should consider the long-term benefits for financial services of a rebalancing of the British Isles economy by sector and geography and thereby generating more sustainable returns.

London is a great city. It brings enormous value to these isles but it is sucking in too much investment, talent and jobs. Only last month we were reminded once again of the problem. Analysis by the Centre for Cities found that London has created more private sector jobs than any other city since 2012.

It also found that a third of people aged between 22 and 30 who moved cities headed for London. Much more concerning, many of those young people never return to Scotland or other regions in the UK. We lose the talent we have nurtured and educated.

Only a real transfer of power from the broken Westminster system to the regions and nations will unlock Britain's potential. The world is getting smaller. More competition is inevitable. Scotland has no choice but to combine its resources as an independent entity to compete more effectively in these isles and around the world.

A Yes vote is that opportunity.

This article was supplied to HeraldScotland by the Yes Scotland campaign. No fee was paid.