A Labour-SNP coalition is the most likely outcome of the General Election, new polling research suggests.

 

The survey puts the chances of a majority government after May 7 at just six per cent.

The Tories are predicted to get the most seats - 274 to Labour's 273 - Ed Miliband is twice as likely to become Prime Minister than David Cameron.

Mr Miliband has more options when it comes to making a deal and forming an alliance with smaller parties like the Nationalists.

Labour's greater choice of potential coalition partners means it has a 67 per cent chance of leading the next government compared to the Tories' 34 per cent chance.

Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats have a 58 per cent chance of being in power again because, potentially, the centre party could cut a deal with either Labour or the Tories.

In contrast, the SNP has a 38 per cent chance of forming a governing alliance.

The number-crunching by Populus, the opinion poll company, and Hanover, the public affairs agency, dubbed the "outcome predictor", has combined UK-wide surveys with Scottish polls to forecast the chances of parties winning seats and the possible sequences of likely coalitions or alliances.

It found the chances of a Lab-SNP coalition were 23.7 per cent; a Lab-Lib coalition 20.4 per cent;

A Con-Lib-DUP coalition was 13.4 per cent and a Con-Lib coalition 11.0 per cent. It put a Lab-DNP-Lib coalition at 10 per cent and a Lab-SNP minority government at half that.

The chances of a Lab-Lib minority government were four per cent and a Con-Ukip-DUP coalition 3.1 per cent;

Meanwhile, a Conservative majority government was only 2.8 per cent and Labour achieving the same 2.7 per cent.

The research follows in-depth polling this week of 16 Scottish seats, 14 Labour and two Liberal Democrat, undertaken by Conservative peer Lord Ashcroft, which suggested a swing of 25 per cent to the SNP.

This means Nicola Sturgeon's party could be on course to pick up 15 of the 16 constituencies polled if the numbers were repeated at the election; including all but one of seven seats in Labour's traditional stronghold of Glasgow. If the swing were replicated across Scotland, this would mean Labour would hang onto just six of its current 41 Scottish MPs and the Nationalists would see a rise in its current representation of six to around 40.

The Ashcroft poll chimes with a number of recent snapshots in Scotland, which have shown the SNP set to pick up the lion's share of Scottish seats come polling day.

But a uniform swing is unlikely and given the large majorities of some Labour-held seats in Scotland, then the chances are Jim Murphy's party could hang on to some of its seats in the central belt. However, several of the contests could be very close.

The latest Populus snapshot puts Labour on 34 points, Conservatives on 31 and the Liberal Democrats on eight; all unchanged. Ukip, meantime, is up two on 16 points while others are down two on 11.

Charles Lewington, Managing Director of Hanover Communications, said: "This shows just how broken the two-party system is since minority parties may well be calling the tune of the next parliament."

He added: "Business should be reflecting on this."