Where is Prudence? All the signs are that she has been jilted by Gordon Brown, to whom she was wedded when he was Chancellor, and Alistair Darling, the Prime Minister�s successor at the Treasury.

Where is Prudence? All the signs are that she has been jilted by Gordon Brown, to whom she was wedded when he was Chancellor, and Alistair Darling, the Prime Minister's successor at the Treasury. Fiscal rules were the wedding vows that cemented the relationship between the government, as personified by Mr Brown, and sound management of the economy. New figures from the Office for National Statistics, published yesterday, point to one of the fiscal, or golden, rules being breached. Net debt seems set to exceed 40% of national income. Mr Brown has been cast as the guilty party in the break-up of a relationship forged over a decade of economic growth and prosperity.

But it takes two to tango. The figures, which show cumulative borrowing rocketing to more than £37bn between April and September this year (the biggest amount in a six-month period since records began in 1946) must be seen in the context of the global financial crisis. This has resulted in record injections of public cash in UK banks and a worsening in the economic downturn. According to Ernst & Young Item Club, the British economy is already in recession. That is debatable, but figures to be published later this week are expected to show that the economy shrank in the third quarter for the first time since 1992.

A consecutive contraction would make a reality of the R word. How Mr Brown responds will determine whether there is lasting substance to his own political recovery culminating in a victory at the next General Election, a prospect that would have been unthinkable only weeks ago. The Prime Minister still has mountains to climb. Contrary to Treasury forecasts, spending on social security and the various tax credits is growing at a faster rate because of the sharp increase in unemployment but receipts from corporation tax and stamp duty are lower than anticipated.

When the tax take fails to keep pace with public spending, governments tend to borrow more. Mr Brown has sensibly said that the bank rescues should be kept clear of the fiscal rules but debt must eventually be tackled, whether the borrower is a country or a household. Slashing spending or raising taxes to improve the public finances would further undermine a weak economy and probably hasten the descent into recession. Increasing income tax would make no political sense for the government with an election at most only two years away.

On balance, it makes sense to invest in public works to stave off a recession for as long as possible and keep it as short as possible, should one materialise. Mr Darling will have to revise his forecasts in the pre-Budget report but it is not all doom and gloom for ministers or, indeed, the public. Britain is better placed to weather the storm than in earlier downturns that ended in recessions as interest rates are low and falling, which should result in further interest rate cuts. If the runes are read accurately, a recession should be relatively short and shallow. It is possible that the government can spend its way out of recession but the tab will still have to be picked up, it is to be hoped, in better times that lie not too far around the corner.