Socialist Royal warns of violence if right-winger wins

FRANCE is on the brink of a major political change, after a presidential election today in which the right-wing reformer Nicolas Sarkozy is clearly tipped as winner.

Ahead in every poll taken since January, the 52-year-old head of the ruling Union For A Popular Movement (UMP) saw his lead stretch further at the end of last week after a televised debate that was seen as a last chance for his socialist rival, Segolene Royal, to recover lost ground.

Far from reversing her fortunes, the debate appears to have decided a large number of centrist voters - who were earlier considering a Royal vote - to switch to Sarkozy. Many said they found her aggressively pious, while Sarkozy belied predictions he would lose his cool.

The last poll released before a midnight ban on campaigning on Friday put Sarkozy at 55% - his biggest lead yet.

With the vast majority of voters - nearly 90% - saying they have made up their minds, the odds of a last-minute upset are remote, and Sarkozy now looks almost certain of victory when the count comes in tonight.

After the bland but reassuring presence of Jacques Chirac, the early days of a Sarkozy presidency promise to be bracing as he capitalises on his mandate to push through a first raft of reforms before the summer.

After taking office on May 16, he will have to wait until next month's parliamentary elections before he can launch his legislative programme. But he plans to call a special session of the national assembly in July to push through key reforms on the economy, crime and immigration.

Among these are several manifesto pledges such as the abolition of tax on overtime, mortgage tax relief for house-buyers and a law to guarantee minimum service in public sector strikes. Sarkozy has also promised an early law to lower the age of criminal majority from 18 to 16 and another to provide minimum jail terms for serial offenders.

On immigration, tougher rules will make it harder for immigrants to bring in their extended families. He has also promised a "ministry of immigration and national identity" - ignoring the howls of protest from opponents who say it is a sop to the far right.

In France these proposals are seen as radically right-wing, and Sarkozy has been painted by the left as the propagandist of a dangerously free-market economic agenda. But how deep the changes will go in practice remains open to question.

"There is an idea doing the rounds that Sarkozy is a kind of French Margaret Thatcher. But I don't think such a creature exists. Not least because no-one in France wants a French Thatcher," said Cambridge professor of French history Robert Tombs.

"If there is to be a turning point after the election, what is at stake is not the system as a whole, but certain rights and privileges enjoyed by a certain generation, notably in the public sector.

"But it is equally possible to envisage an attempt at reform, followed by protests in the streets and then the end of reform. Let's face it, it has happened enough in the past," said Tombs, author of That Sweet Enemy - a history of French-British relations from the late 17th century.

Sarkozy's first problem may not be protests against his economic reforms - but the more immediate prospect of unrest in the high-immigration suburbs, where his election is likely to be greeted with unmitigated hostility.

If memories remain vivid of the 2005 riots - which many in the banlieues blamed on Sarkozy's policing methods as interior minister and his much-reported remarks describing young delinquents as "racaille" or rabble - tensions have been further aggravated in recent days by the tactics of Sarkozy's political opponents.

On Friday, Royal launched what seemed a desperate last-minute bid to turn the tide against Sarkozy, by blatantly warning of more violence in the suburbs if he is elected. She told a radio station she had a "responsibility to issue an alert over the risks regarding the violence and brutalities that will be triggered across the country. Everyone knows it but no-one says it. It is a kind of taboo."

She also described Sarkozy as "a candidate who pays court to all that is dark in human nature, who has never stopped whetting every kind of fear and vengeance". Instead, the French should "turn towards the light", she said.

The scaremongering was the logical conclusion of a second-round campaign that for the socialists focused exclusively on the theme of "tout sauf Sarkozy" - anything but Sarkozy.

If the polls are correct, Royal's attempts to rally France against Sarkozy's "dangerous candidacy" have failed. It remains to be seen whether - wittingly or otherwise - she has prepared the ground for a hostile reaction in the suburbs.