Economists in Scotland have predicted that the economy north of the border will be more resilient than the rest of the UK as the global financial crisis tightens its grip.

Economists in Scotland have predicted that the economy north of the border will be more resilient than the rest of the UK as the global financial crisis tightens its grip.

In the light of dire warnings about soaring fuel prices and fresh signs of a crisis in the High Street following falling sales alerts by retail giants Marks & Spencer and John Lewis, economists say Scottish growth should exceed the rest of the UK this year, next year, and possibly in 2010.

However, they warn it could be outperformed by other parts of the UK the following year.

Encouraging signs that Scotland's economy was bucking the UK trend emerged last week when the Nationwide building society revealed that Scotland was the only one of 13 UK regions where average house prices rose in the 12 months to mid-June.

Also last week, the Scottish Government issued figures showing that manufacturing exports grew by 2.3% in the first quarter of 2008 compared with the final quarter of 2007. In the year to March 31 Scottish exports grew by 3.2%.

The decline of sterling since the credit crunch set in last August has made imports and overseas holidays more costly, but it has boosted Scotland's exporters and the home-based tourism industry.

John McLaren, an economist at Glasgow University and a member of the Centre for Public Policy in the Regions, said Scotland regularly performs relatively well in an economic downturn.

He said: "One reason for this is that the larger public sector in Scotland acts as an anchor. It's a drag when things are going well, but it's a benefit when things are going badly."

Douglas Adams, economic adviser to the Ernst & Young Scottish Item Club, said Scotland was much less affected than the rest of the UK in the 1990s downturn.

He said: "Between 1990 and 1992 the Scottish economy expanded by nearly 0.5%, compared with no growth in the UK. There is evidence to suggest that the current episode will be similar."

The optimistic forecasts by economists follow encouraging statistics from the Scottish Retail Consortium, which said retail spending in Scotland increased by 8% annually in May.