JAN M OLSEN COPENHAGEN Climate scientists have warned that sea levels could rise by twice as much as previously projected as they presented the latest research on global warming.
JAN M OLSEN
COPENHAGEN
Climate scientists have warned that sea levels could rise by twice as much as previously projected as they presented the latest research on global warming.
A 2007 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted a sea level rise of 7in to 23in by the end of the century, but scientists meeting in Copenhagen yesterday dismissed those estimates as too conservative, saying new data suggested the rise could exceed 39in and was unlikely to be less than 20in.
"This means that if the emission of greenhouse gases is not reduced quickly and substantially, even the bestcase scenario will hit lowlying coastal areas housing one-tenth of humans on the planet hard," said organisers of the congress hosted by the University of Copenhagen.
The melting of polar ice sheets and of glaciers are two big factors that will affect sea levels, they added.
"Unless we under take urgent and significant mitigation actions, the climate could cross a threshold during the 21st century, committing the world to a sea level rise of metres," said John Church of the Centre for Australian We a t h e r a n d C l i m a t e Research.
The conclusions of the conference will be presented to politicians meeting in Copenhagen in December to discuss a new global agreement on greenhouse gas emissions to replace the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012.
IPCC chairman Rajendra Pachauri said scientists could analyse the dangers associated with global warming, but that it was up to politicians to do something about it.
"I am afraid that it is something that involves value judgment on the part of policymakers, and I am afraid that they shied away from it," he told the conference. "It is time to take action."
Responding to the research, Rob Bailey, climate change policy adviser for Oxfam, said: "These startling new predictions on sea-level rise spell disaster for millions of the world's poorest people.
"Poor coastal communities in countries such as Bangladesh are already struggling to cope with a changing climate and it can only get worse. This must be a wake-up call, for rich countries are not doing anywhere near enough to prevent these cataclysmic predictions becoming a reality."
Research presented to the congress also showed the number of people dying from the effects of heat in cities because of climate change by the end of the century could be twice as many as previously estimated. Scientists said the number of people dying in London could increase from a current average of 120 each summer to nearly 500 people by the 2080s.
The researchers took into account the likely increase in the number of extremely hot days as well as warmer average temperatures.
Simon Gosling, of the Walker Institute at the University of Reading, said previous studies that ignored the effect of increased variability in day-to-day temperatures are likely to have underestimated the number of deaths.
He said: "We can expect a lot more extreme temperatures.
It's generally going to be warmer but there will also be more days when it's really hot. The frequency of hot days is going to increase as well as average temperatures.
"It moves the body away more often from its comfort range of temperatures, and the increased stress is more likely to affect the alreadyvulnerable, such as those with existing health problems like heart disease."
