He has lost the confidence of many MPs but the government is determined that Michael Martin stays in office. James Cusick explains why
Opposition parties fear that the Commons debate tomorrow over the police search of the parliamentary offices of Damien Green will signal the beginning of government tactics to avoid any inquiry on the controversy reaching a conclusion before the next general election.
Although the Speaker, Michael Martin, told the Commons last Wednesday that he would appoint a committee of "seven senior and experienced" MPs who would report to him "as soon as possible" and which "will have as much power as I can possibly allow" it has since emerged that the committee will consist of a majority of Labour MPs.
The motion tabled for debate also confines the inquiry team only to the "search of offices on the Parliamentary Estate", rather than who ordered the search of the offices and home of Green.
Martin's "as soon as possible" promise to the Commons has also been weakened.
The seven-MP inquiry team will not begin their work until after the police have concluded all their own investigations into Green. He was arrested last week on suspicion of "conspiring to commit misconduct in a public office" and "aiding and abetting, counselling or procuring misconduct in a public office". During Green's nine-hour detention last week, Scotland Yard officers suggested to him that he had received leaked information taken from the Home Office and had "groomed" a civil servant to pass information on to him.
Christopher Galley, the Home Office civil servant at the centre of the leak investigation, was arrested on November 19 but released on bail without charge. Green, the Tory shadow minister for immigration, has also not been charged.
But with the Home Secretary signalling last week that "more information of greater sensitivity" was still at risk of being disclosed, there is no immediate possibility of the police investigation being concluded.
A Whitehall source told the Sunday Herald that there was "no prospect of the police being told to limit or speed up their investigation just to justify a comment by the Speaker." Asked if the Home Office could widen the remit of the police investigation, the source said "Yes. There have been leaks in other departments, not just the Home Office."
If either Galley or Green are charged at the conclusion of the police investigation, which could still take months, the Commons investigation would not begin until court proceedings were concluded. It could be the next parliamentary session, or after the summer recess, before the parliamentary inquiry, and beyond the general election in 2010 before the report is finally delivered.
The Liberal Democrat's leader, Nick Clegg, has said he has no confidence in the inquiry and said no LibDem MP will be allowed to sit on the committee.
The former LibDem leader, Sir Menzies Campbell, said the tactics of the government were becoming obvious. "They are attempting to kick this into the long grass." He suggested that one of the core concerns of the government was to keep the Speaker in place, thus avoiding a damaging resignation that would result in a difficult by-election in Martin's Glasgow North East constituency.
"If the Speaker steps down, by convention, he or she leaves the House and goes to the Lords. After retaining Glenrothes, the last thing Gordon Brown needs is another by-election in Glasgow."
Retaining Glenrothes was seen as a tipping point in Brown's fortunes as Labour leader. It reversed the July loss of Glasgow East to the Scottish National Party and began Labour's recent progress in the opinion polls.
Martin's Glasgow North East constituency gave Labour a 10,134 majority at the last election. In line with the convention required of a speaker's seat, none of the main Westminster parties stood against him. But with the SNP in second place, the arithmetic in this seat would make uncomfortable reading for Downing Street.
A private poll of 100 cross-party backbenchers showed that two thirds of the Commons thought it was time Martin went. If a motion was tabled calling on him to resign, the government's majority and a hard-line operation mounted by government whips would ensure he survived.
But if Martin loses the daily support of the Commons and he "becomes the story" then a forced, but dignified, resignation cannot be ruled out.
The Labour back-bencher Bob Marshall-Andrews said Martin should resign because he could not recover from the row, and was guilty of a "deplorable breach of his duties to the House."
Martin has effectively blamed the Serjeant at Arms, Jill Pay, and said he was not told the police had no search warrant. Martin also said police did not explain to the serjeant that she was not obliged to consent. However Scotland Yard said the serjeant was "fully briefed" with Pay telling police officers she had sought legal advice and would inform the Speaker.
Although tomorrow's debate is only on the establishment of the seven-member committee, MPs will try to subvert the narrow remit focussing just on the "Parliamentary Estate".
One Tory MP, a lawyer, said there were two accounts of why the police were allowed to search Green's Westminster office. "The Speaker gave his account last week.The Metropolitan Police gave their account. Sadly, they cannot both be true. If the debate achieves anything tomorrow, it must at least decide how the truth can be established. Anything less will be a black day for this democratic institution."
