The Tenner Bet has a 100% record when it comes to Formula One so, you would imagine it may be worth listening to what I am going to say next.
But consider this rider: I have only ever placed three bets on motor racing in my 20-odd years of gambling, all of them in the last month.
Have I really hit upon my life's calling or is this merely extended beginner's luck? We are about to find out, as the F1 season resumes with the Belgian Grand Prix at Spa Francorchamps tomorrow.
Fernando Alonso leads the drivers' championship from Mark Webber and Sebastian Vettel and Red Bull are ahead of Ferrari in the constructors' competition. That will not change this weekend but the gap could be narrowed, albeit incrementally, in both sets of standings.
POLE POSITION
The weather is likely to play a major part in determining who takes the front of the grid with a smattering of rain forecast for qualifying.
That should make predicting who will occupy pole a difficult task and history shows no definite trend. A bet on the Sauber pair of Kamui Kobayashi and/or Sergio Perez to finish in the top 10 might be worth considering.
THE RACE
Lewis Hamilton is all the rage for this race and his win in Hungary would certainly give cause for optimism but at 3/1 it's hard to back him with any great conviction.
As for the Red Bulls, Spa historically favours teams with low down-force units and the pace of Vettel and Webber is unlikely to be enough on its own. Vettel did win here last year but in a car that was far superior to any of its rivals.
Instead it is Kimi Raikkonen in the Lotus who offers greatest appeal. He is a four-time winner at Spa and has finished on the podium in three of his last four races.
Alonso remains the form driver but has a distinctly average record here, with just two podium finishes since his first race at Spa in 2004. As we have seen in recent weeks, consistent form at a track can be almost as important as the car in question.
THE TEAMS
Mercedes have toiled for most of the season and that seems unlikely to change, not least with the increased potential for rain. Michael Schumacher has had to retire in six of his 11 races and the team have recorded just three double points finishes (both cars in the top 10).
His team-mate Nico Rosberg has not been in the top six since his second at Monaco in May. The 9/10 on offer about Mercedes not producing a double points finish looks worth considering. The 2/1 on a McLaren victory is not too shabby either given Hamilton's price of 3/1.
THE SELECTION
Kimi Raikkonen has proved to be a formidable driver at this circuit, having won the race four times, and, indeed, his last F1 victory came here in 2009.
The Lotus has had new updates, specifically a double DRS system, which have been added in an attempt to keep the car competitive over the second half of the season and given the recent podium finishes the Finn is worthy of an each-way punt at 101/20 (youwin). McLaren (2/1, skybet) to add to their 11 Belgian wins is the other pick.
SEASON'S TOTAL
Last week's selection, Li Na, exited the US Open yesterday following a surprise defeat at the hands of Laura Robson meaning the overall total drops to -£20.
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules hereComments are closed on this article