The simple maxim is true: if Scotland cannot beat Georgia in Tbilisi on Friday night then their “right” to be at the Euro 16 finals in France next summer will seem extremely eroded.

Georgia are ranked 154th in the world and have endured a largely pitiful campaign. The former eastern bloc country currently despairs at its quality of international footballer.

In their three home matches in Group D so far they have lost thrice, scoring one goal and conceding eight. In terms of qualification, they are down and out, a dead duck.

It is a sign of the abject poverty of Georgian football right now that Giorgi Makaridze, an erratic goalkeeper who made his debut against Scotland back in 2007, has been hauled up from the Portuguese second division to perchance win his sixth cap in eight years. Even Georgia’s best goalkeeper, Giorgi Loria, hasn’t got a club.

In Scotland, if we think we’ve had it lean in recent years, it is nothing to how they have felt about things in Tbilisi. Putting it bluntly, Georgia are feeble.

All this, of course, should only send a shiver up Scottish spines. Gordon Strachan’s team is tantalisingly within reach of grabbing one of the two automatic qualification spots in the group, and so, just when we didn’t need it, some cannon-fodder is served our way to test our mettle.

The bleak Calvinists out there will tell you this fixture on Friday night has a Georgia win written all over it: a time-honoured Scottish collapse just waiting to happen.

I share a little bit of that trepidation. Over four days Scotland face Georgia in Tbilisi and Germany in Glasgow, and three points from those two games would be very welcome.

But will they be forthcoming? I’m taking it Germany will beat us in Glasgow, though you never know. The main impetus this weekend should be in Scotland returning from eastern Europe with a win – any type of win – to boast of.

Strachan is a lucky manager in one sense – in an expanded competition almost half the countries who have entered these Euro 16 qualifiers will actually play in France next summer.

That said, the Scotland manager has restored order and confidence in a Scotland team previously beaten-up over years for its lack of achievement.

Strachan’s team showed a startling buoyancy while going down 2-1 to Germany in Dortmund last September. One month later a fine 2-2 draw was secured in Poland. And four points from six against Ireland has further enhanced Scotland’s chances.

But now we are at the sharp end of the qualification business. On the home straight we are about to see if Strachan and his team have the guile to finish in a top-two position.

A third-place finish in Group D – a nice luxury – would still grant a play-off spot for the finals. But that is a trauma we could do without.

One of the Gordon Strachan’s guiding principles as a manager is the notion of “trust”. Stephen McManus, his old Celtic centre-back, confirmed this again earlier this week. “Gordon picks players he feels he can trust and, as a player, you enjoy earning that trust from him,” said McManus.

It points to a certain way of doing things by the Scotland manager. So James McArthur, a solid and reliable midfielder with Crystal Palace, is in this squad, while Charlie Adam, a gifted maverick, is not.

Adam, one hopes, is by no means finished as a Scotland player under Strachan. And his ability – and sense of daring – is not to be doubted. But Strachan wants trust and a degree of reliability in his team, and few can argue with that policy.

The Scotland manager has a number of decisions to make, such as whether to start with Charlie Mulgrew, Steven Whittaker and Darren Fletcher. But his biggest judgement must be over whom to play as a lone striker.

I hope he goes with Celtic’s Leigh Griffiths, a player with goals pouring out of him. The wise money, however, appears to be on Sunderland’s Steven Fletcher starting against Georgia.

Where Griffiths can find the back of a net, Fletcher very often cannot hit a barn door. But, yes, the alternative view is obvious: Fletcher is more technical than Griffiths, and better at playing with his back to goal.

I hope Strachan calls it right and is vindicated in his decision. Because I really would like a Scotland goal – and maybe two – in Tbilisi.

This has been a galvanising Scotland campaign in these qualifiers. These are games to feast on. But Tbilisi, to be frank, must produce three points for Scotland.