THERE are years when the pecking order in the Six Nations Championship is obvious before a ball is kicked. Years when you know that a couple of teams will be fighting it out for the title, two more will be muddling around in mid-table, and another pair - guess which pair - will be scrapping with each other to escape the Wooden Spoon.

Not this year. This year, five teams have a realistic chance of finishing either top of the pile or down in second-last spot. And even Italy, the one country with no more than a theoretical chance of becoming champions, could, with a fair wind at their back, pull off a shock or two.

In other words, it’s one of the most open tournaments for some time. That is partly because the teams are at different stages of their evolution, with Scotland on the rise, Ireland possibly just past their best and Wales perhaps about to hit their peak; partly because, with new coaches in charge of both England and France, there is genuine uncertainty about how the two biggest nations will fare; and partly because we have yet to find out how all half-dozen teams will respond to their very varied experiences at last year’s Rugby World Cup.

Scotland had the most positive performance of any Six Nations side at the World Cup, having come within a couple of minutes of beating Australia to reach the semi-finals. After losing every game in the 2015 Six Nations, they enjoyed a modest improvement over the course of their four warm-up matches, and continued to mature in the competition proper.

There were still very evident flaws in their game - it would have been interesting, for example, to see how Japan would have done against them with more than a four-day turnaround from their opening game against South Africa - but they were flaws which can be ironed out. Indeed, both against the Japanese and in the following game against the United States, those flaws were ironed out early in the second half, in time for Vern Cotter’s team to record bonus-point victories. In other words, their weaknesses are not inherent and unavoidable: they are relatively minor matters, such as lack of composure or concentration, that can be erased.

Cotter’s first-choice pack is one of the strongest available to any Scottish coach for decades. The all-Edinburgh front row of Alasdair Dickinson, Ross Ford and WP Nel can hold its own against any opponents, at 21 Jonny Gray is fast developing into a world-class lock, and John Hardie, barely six months on from his debut, has cemented his grip on the No 7 jersey.

The backs have a creative spark and a growing solidity in defence, and players such as Finn Russell and Stuart Hogg are beginning to return to their best with Glasgow after a post-World-Cup lull. Greig Laidlaw, the scrum-half and captain, continues to grow as a leader, and proved in the World Cup match against Samoa that he has one of the coolest heads in the business when it comes to making decisions under pressure.

In other words, the Scotland squad as a whole is a really good balance of strength and skill and savoir faire. So why are they only fifth favourites to win their first title since Five became Six in 2000?

First, because, for all their promise, they have yet to achieve anything substantial: their ability to stay the pace against the big guns is unproven. Second, because Cotter has such a shallow pool from which to choose, and because just two or three injuries - at centre, for example, where he has had severe problems - can leave sections of the team looking threadbare.

By contrast, England, who visit Murrayfield on Saturday in the opening round of fixtures, have massive playing resources. The question is how long it will take Eddie Jones, their new coach, to make the best use of them.

The Australian’s selection of Dylan Hartley as captain looks like being an unnecessarily risky move. The Northampton hooker has racked up more than a year’s worth of suspensions, so merely selecting him to play could be regarded as a liability. Appointing him to lead the side as well is either a very clever move or an extremely foolhardy one.

Still, if Jones’ choice as his captain ruffled a few feathers within the Twickenham establishment, the noises he has been making about his preferred style of play can only have reassured his employers. He wants England to return to their traditional virtues of forward-dominated play, and if at first some supporters may grumble about the lack of ball for the backs, he expects that success will soon silence the complaints.

Scotland’s first away game, and probably the toughest task of all for them, is in Cardiff. While the leading contenders for the title may be too evenly matched this year for anyone to pull off a Grand Slam, Wales will at least fancy their chances of pulling it off, having swept the board after the last two World Cups.

Warren Gatland’s team had to contend with a horrendous run of injuries before the World Cup, and yet performed with distinction to reach the quarter-finals at England’s expense. They are virtually unstoppable when they build up a head of steam, and if they win their first game in Dublin they then have a promising run of fixtures: two home games against Scotland and France, then the short trip to play England before they end up back at home against Italy.

France are at home to the Italians in their first game, which should be enough to get their new coach, Guy Noves, off to a winning start. The former Toulouse coach will probably adopt a safety-first approach, at least in his opening couple of matches, after the Philippe Saint-Andre era ended with the squad patently unsure of how they were meant to be playing the game.

In four years at the helm Saint-Andre finished no higher than fourth - an under-achievement that scarcely seems possible given the talent he had at his disposal. Noves should easily better that record, although it could take him a couple of seasons to sort things out.

If France are a team in transition, Ireland are perhaps a year or two away from being required to undergo an overhaul. Paul O’Connell retired from international rugby after the World Cup, and he, like Brian O’Driscoll, will not be easily replaced.

Nonetheless, the title will not be surrendered lightly.Joe Schmidt is one of the smartest coaches in the game, and, while none of his players has the stature of the two greats who have gone, they all know what it takes to become champions.

Italy, by contrast, know all too well what it feels like to finish bottom of the table - although they avoided that fate last year by defeating Scotland at Murrayfield. They then lost twice to the same opponents in the summer, however, and did nothing at the World Cup to suggest they have turned the corner. Even so, they will hope to pull off a shock in round one when they visit the Stade de France, and as always will target the Scotland match as their most realistic chance of a victory.