EVEN with only two rounds of games to go, the PRO12 play-off permutations remain perplexing. The top three - Leinster, Connacht and Glasgow Warriors - have all but secured the top-four finish that will take them into the semi-finals, but when it comes to getting into the top two and claiming a home semi-final, nothing is certain.

The one thing we can say for sure - and that Gregor Townsend has said to his squad - is that the champions have their fate in their own hands. Beat Zebre at home tonight, then Connacht in Ireland in eight days’ time, and they will be back at Scotstoun in the semis. No quibbles, no queries.

The only question then will be who they meet in the last four, but that can take care of itself. The key for Townsend is winning tonight, and then, whatever happens elsewhere this weekend, visiting Connacht with the knowledge that victory will ensure they finish in the top two.

“I think that’s the important thing,” the Warriors head coach said yesterday. “We want to get into a shoot-out with Connacht. Even if they lose their game [away to Benetton Treviso tonight] it’s still going to be a shoot-out, because they’ll be just a couple of points behind us.

“Them winning or losing against Munster [two weeks ago] didn’t really affect what we believe will happen if we both win, which is we’re playing for a home semi-final. There could be other permutations with Leinster-Ulster the following day, there’s an outside chance that Connacht could get a home semi-final and we could get a home semi-final, but the only way we’re getting a home semi-final is if we win our next two games. That’s what I believe is correct.”

The last, lingering doubts about their getting into the play-offs will finally be dispelled tonight if Glasgow win, but they want to do a bit more than simply claim the four or five points. They want to win in style, and maintain the momentum which has seen them win their last eight games - a run of results which has seen them soar up the table from eighth to third.

It would certainly be a surprise if the Warriors fail to win well against the Italians, who are second bottom, with only their compatriots Treviso below them in the table. But, while his team hammered Zebre 43-14 in Parma at the start of this month, Townsend insisted there was no danger of taking a win for granted, and explained that the squad’s approach to training this week had shown they were determined to be as competitive as ever.

“It has been like a normal week that you get sometimes, where they are maybe not as good as you want them to be, and then at other times they are very good,” he said. “Today was an example. We started training in the snow really poorly and then we got on the main pitch, still in the snow, and trained really well.

“Tuesday was an excellent day and Monday wasn't as good. We worked them hard because they had been off last week. The focus is there. People are determined to get an opportunity and have a chance to play in the semi.”

On the face of it, Zebre can take some encouragement from the fact that they led 14-7 at half-time in their home game against Glasgow, but they tend to fade badly after the break, and opponents are now aware that patience and persistence are the keys to getting on top of them. Townsend has rested some of his big names for the game, among them full-back Stuart Hogg and lock Jonny Gray, but he also has a lot of strength on the bench to call on should Zebre prove harder to put away than has been the case.

Fraser Brown, Ryan Wilson, Finn Russell and Tommy Seymour all have the ability to make an impact off the bench, although the coach would be happy if he did not have to use them all. Peter Horne misses out through injury, but should be available for the Connacht match, while Zebre’s injury list includes Glasgow-bound winger Leonardo Sarto.

The game will be a chance for those players who are leaving in the summer to say their farewells to the Scotstoun crowd, but whether Sean Lamont comes into that category remains to be seen. The veteran winger was not in the list of departures announced earlier this week, but his contract is about to expire. “We’ll wait and see,” Townsend said on the subject.

Glasgow Warriors (v Zebre at Scotstoun, tonight, 7.35pm): G Bryce; T Naiyaravoro, M Bennett, A Dunbar, S Lamont; D Weir, G Hart; J Yanuyanutawa, P MacArthur, D Rae, G Peterson, L Nakarawa, R Harley, S Favaro, A Ashe. Substitutes: F Brown, G Reid, Z Fagerson, T Swinson, R Wilson, A Price, F Russell, T Seymour.

Zebre: U Beyers; G Toniolatti, T Boni, G Garcia, K van Zyl; C Canna, L Burgess; A de Marchi, O Fabiani, D Chistolini, Q Geldenhuys, M Bortolami, E Caffini, F Cristiano, F Ruzza. Substitutes: B Postigilioni, E Coria, P Ceccarelli, G Koegelenberg, A van Schalkwyk, G Palazzani, G Bisegni, K Haimona.