SCOTLAND are improving. Results reveal it, performances prove it, and even Vern Cotter, a man who steers well clear of anything that could be construed as boastfulness, admits it too.

But when the head coach says that his side are getting better, he does so with an important caveat. “We’re getting better, but so is everyone else,” is how Cotter puts it.

And that, as we try to assess the team’s chances in this year’s Six Nations Championship, is the salient point. Are Scotland only getting better relative to their own previous, less-than-impressive form, or are they closing the gap on the teams who finished above them last year? Running to stand still, or actually catching up?

Certainly, they have had to come from a long way back. In 2015, Cotter’s first championship in charge, they were beaten in every game: in two (Italy and Wales) by only three points, but in the last, against Ireland, by 30. Then came a moderately successful Rugby World Cup, followed last year by a championship of two solid wins (Italy and France) and three respectable defeats, culminating in a fourth-place finish. The Autumn Tests - a single-point defeat by the Wallabies then two wins over Argentina and Georgia - kept up the progress.

There is no doubt that the team is maturing. Some of the most important players, such as Finn Russell and Jonny Gray, are now experienced internationals with over 20 caps each. There is still a lot of inconsistency, and you can never be entirely confident that you will see Scotland perform at their best on any given day, but there is more solidity and self-belief than there was. And, thanks in large part to the invaluable leadership of Greig Laidlaw, this is now a team that knows how to grind out a result when it is below its best.

So Cotter, as he prepares for his third and final Six Nations before returning to club rugby in France, can reflect with satisfaction on the progress he has made so far, and look forward to the five matches to come with justifiable optimism. “The first Six Nations was a revelation to me - just how tough it was,” the New Zealander recalled last week. “But I always sit down and take positives and I got a very clear indication of what had to be done. It gave me a clear pathway and we've been able to follow that through in terms of strength in depth.

“Scottish rugby is on the up. Both pro teams have qualified in Europe and we've got players in other successful teams such as Saracens. I think the leadership and shared experience has helped: coming through a World Cup, reaching a quarter-final. There have been games that have been very disappointing to have lost and from those there have been honest reviews that have helped move us forward.

“If you look at the leadership group, Greig has been the obvious leader and helped guys like Finn and Hoggy [Stuart Hogg] around him. He's been able to lean on guys like Jonny Gray, a young man who’s accumulating Test caps.”

Cotter has been sparing in his remarks about his imminent departure since learning that he would not be offered a new contract, but occasionally he has allowed us a glimpse of an attitude that appears halfway between frustration and regret. Such a mixture of emotions is hardly surprising given he is convinced that this team can keep getting better for some time yet.

“We’re still a long way away from reaching that famous point where the majority of your team is between 40 and 80 Test caps, but we're getting there,” he continued. “When this team gets more time together in this Six Nations it will be a great competition for us, because there are opportunities to go on a Lions tour.

“I think we have players in serious consideration. We need a good Six Nations. Then if they get that experience it's just going to filter down right through Scottish rugby."

Speaking of experience, the biggest concern for Scotland as they prepare for the championship has to be the neck injury that has ruled Willem Nel out of action. The tighthead prop has been the bedrock of the pack since qualifying to represent his adoptive country on the residence rule in 2015, and is one of the first names to be written in on the team sheet.

Along with Jonny Gray, Laidlaw, Russell and Hogg, Nel forms the spine of the team. Zander Fagerson, his probable replacement for Saturday’s opening game against Ireland, is one of the most promising players to have emerged for years. But, having just turned 21 and with only four caps to his name, he may well not be ready to start five games in seven weeks.

On the other side of the front row, the loss of Alasdair Dickinson for at least part of the competition is a similar concern. Allan Dell has deputised impressively for Edinburgh and in his three appearances for Scotland, but again, it would clearly be preferable to have our most seasoned campaigner available to start at least some of the games in the No 1 jersey.

Yet despite those two key absences, there is a lot more experience in other parts of the team than there was a couple of years ago - and greater strength in depth, as Cotter said, in areas of the squad such as the centres and back row. At lock, for example, Richie Gray has 60 caps to his name, and has been in fine form lately. There is a received opinion within Scottish rugby that success came too easily to him and that he has been overtaken by his younger brother, but over the past year or so he seems to have been inspired by Jonny into upping his game.

With Dell and Fagerson in the front row, the onus will be on Ross Ford with his 100-plus caps to guide them through the tougher passages of games. In the back row, Cotter is likely to start with John Barclay, Ryan Wilson and Hamish Watson, but he could also opt for a bigger, more defensively minded combination by including Josh Strauss or Rob Harley instead of Watson. And that is before we take into consideration John Hardie, who should make his comeback for Edinburgh shortly and can then be expected to challenge Watson for the openside berth.

With Tommy Seymour and Sean Maitland looking certain to start on the wings, the main question in the back division is which blend Cotter will choose for his centre partnership. Alex Dunbar and Huw Jones are the probable picks, but Duncan Taylor has been Scotland’s best player in some of his 18 Tests, and Mark Bennett is the most dangerous attacker of the four centres in the squad of 36.

The probability that Bennett will miss out on a starting place is the clearest indication of how the squad has progressed. The Warriors centre was on the short list for World Rugby’s Breakthrough Player of the Year award in 2015, and for a time was our likeliest source of tries in the three-quarter line. The burden for point-scoring is now shared far more widely.

Still, no matter how much promise the team shows on paper, we will soon find out how ready they are to turn potential into reality. Having a home game to begin with is a plus for Cotter, but Ireland have been formidable opponents both at Murrayfield and Dublin in recent years.

It will be a different kind of match than the corresponding fixtures in 2015 and ‘16, both of which were played on the last day when some teams are on a points chase and others are close to exhaustion, but there is no sign that the Irish will be easier to beat than they were then. By rights they should have suffered badly from the retirement of two of their greatest ever players, Brian O’Driscoll and Paul O’Connell, but what they have lost in individual inspiration they have compensated for in tireless teamwork. And any improvement Scotland made over the autumn is put into context by Ireland’s magnificent victory over the All Blacks in Chicago.

After Saturday’s opening game, Scotland have an eight-day turnaround before their next match in the Stade de France, a ground they have not won in this century. They finished above the French on points differential last year, but Guy Noves has now had the time to sort his squad out, and we can expect a more coherent style of play than they exhibited during a shambolic 2016 campaign.

A fallow week follows, then Wales are next up at Murrayfield. If Scotland are to equal last year’s record, it is the Welsh match and the game against the Italians on the last day of the championship that gives them most hope. Wales played poorly at times in the autumn, and Rob Howley, interim coach for a second time to allow Warren Gatland a Lions sabbatical, will be hard-pressed to knock them into shape.

If Paris has not been a happy hunting ground for Scotland, Twickenham has been even more discouraging, and since Eddie Jones took over as head coach England have been transformed from the bedraggled bunch that failed to get out of the group stages at their own World Cup. Jones’ 100 per cent record may well be ended over the coming weeks, but with the best will in the world it is hard to see Scotland being the team to do it.

While a win at Twickenham would be an unexpected bonus, a loss at home to Italy the last day of the tournament would be little short of calamitous. The Italians are still over-reliant on Sergio Parisse and a couple of others, and their clubs have done nothing in the PRO12 or Europe to suggest that the national side is about to enjoy a renaissance.

So victory over the Azzurri should be the very minimum requirement from a Scots perspective, and it will be disappointing if Cotter’s team do not get another win somewhere down the line. A third victory, either thanks to a clean sweep of home games or thanks to a once-in-a-generation performance in Paris, would make it an outstanding season - and prove that Scotland really are doing more than just running to stand still.