The signs and clues are there. The problem is deciphering those which will lead to the winner of the Investec Derby.
The most obvious piece of evidence came a month ago when Saxon Warrior won the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket and now he is odds-on favourite to become the fifth colt in the last half-century to win both the Guineas and the Derby.
On paper that appears the likely outcome but the Derby is run on the mile-and-a-half roller-coaster of Epsom racecourse where both El Gran Senor (1984) and Dancing Brave (1986) failed to complete the double. It is that thought which prompts other trainers to take on Aidan O’Brien’s latest star, including William Haggas.
The Young Rascal will be just the fourth runner in the Derby for Haggas after more than 30 years with a licence and given that he won the race with Shaamit in 1996 and Storm the Stars finished third three years ago it is evident that Don Quixote probably did not figure in the trainer’s childhood reading.
“It’s finding the horses who’ve got a respectable chance, that’s the hard part,” he said. “I find it hard and 95 per cent of trainers would say I’m sounding like a spoilt child because I have lots of nice horses, which I have. But it’s nearly impossible for me to get a Galileo [bred] because most of those go to Aidan. I don’t bemoan the fact, it’s just the way it is.”
Saxon Warrior was actually sired by Japanese stallion Deep Impact and he has lived up to his sire’s name with O’Brien already talking about an attempt on the Triple Crown of Guineas, Derby and St Leger last achieved by Nijinsky in 1970.
“Everyone was impressed with Saxon Warrior,” Haggas said as he considered the main opposition. “He did it at two [winning the Racing Post Trophy] and he’s got the stamina so he’s an obvious horse. Roaring Lion was impressive at York [winning the Dante Stakes] so he’s dangerous and then there’s a whole host of others.”
Chief among them could be The Young Rascal, owned by Investec managing director Bernard Kantor, who showed himself to be anything but a social runner for the sponsor when winning the Chester Vase this month.
Such was Haggas’ faith in Shaamit that he ran him in the Derby having won his sole start as a two-year-old, while The Young Rascal is more of a work in progress. But the progress has become more rapid.
“Shaamit was very natural, this horse is learning,” Haggas said.
“Throughout the winter I thought the Derby might be too early for him and then he surprised me at Newbury last month with the ease with which he won and he stepped forward at Chester.”
Not just forward but around other horses in a tough race that was also highly educative for a colt facing the race of his life in just his fourth start.
“He’s fairly immature,” Haggas admitted. “But he’s making great strides. I think he’s going to stay and he’s getting better.”
This is the point in the preparation when things can only go wrong and many trainers watch the final gallops through half-closed eyes while clutching anything from a cigarette to a rosary for comfort.
“I have a sign in my office and it says ‘worry is a futile emotion’,” Haggas said with a smile. ”I think the only time a trainer gets nervous is if he thinks he shouldn’t be running a horse. Smoking 20 cigarettes? No, not for me.”
So far the signs are looking promising.
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