So Darren Lehmann was not kidding when he said during summer that he thought Australia had brought their best players to England.

It seemed he might be being diplomatic about a group he had no say in choosing, but inherited at short notice when Australia canned Mickey Arthur as coach in mid-tour.

But Australia's selection for the first test in Part Two of this year's Ashesathon, starting in Brisbane on Thursday, reflects evident belief that the two teams are closer than the 3-0 outcome of Part One might suggest, and in particular that they were getting it right by the end of the series.

Ten of the 12 men summoned to Brisbane - a consideration improvement on the 17 they contrived to name at the same stage of England's last visit - played in the final test at The Oval. The other two are both intriguing choices, each with an element of gamble.

The call-up for batsman George Bailey will be warmly welcomed by Scottish fans who recall his two seasons with the Saltires in 2007 and 2010 and in particular his send-off, an innings of 123 not out and a stand of 198 with Richie Berrington against Warwickshire at Edgbaston.

At 31, he's Australia's oldest batting debutant since the late 1970s and his first-class record - a career average a little south of 40, depressed by averaging 18.28 for Tasmania last year, is hardly conclusive proof of potential for the longer game.

But in the shorter formats he is established not merely as an Australia player, but as captain on the frequent occasions when Michael Clarke's back problems compel a rest. Bailey's efforts, culminating in an innings of 156, stood out even amid the run-deluge of Australia's recent one-day series in India and his average in the format is comfortably above 50.

He made a perhaps even greater impression as a captain and a calm, measured spokesman for a team embattled by off-field events, during last season's Champions Trophy. His selection looks like a classic case of betting on temperament as the key factor in determining top-level success.

Lehmann, doubtless conscious that the main difference between the two sides in their recent series was that England played well under pressure, said: "The pleasing thing from my point of view is he's quite calm. It is going to get heated at some stage during the summer and, hopefully, he's going to hold us in good stead."

Former Australian captain Ian Chappell has questioned whether Bailey has the technique to prosper at top level. But batting coach Michael di Venuto, a fellow-Tasmanian who was still playing for the state when Bailey entered first-class cricket, says: "George has always been a player who finds a way. You watch him in the nets and as he admits, he's not the prettiest looking batter at times and you think 'how can this bloke score runs?' but get him out in the middle of the contest and George finds a way."

Finding a way has often been a problem for paceman Mitchell Johnson, recalled after missing the Ashes series in England. Here the gamble is hoping the occasions when his idiosyncratic action meshes and he is capable of running through the best teams - as he has against South Africa and on the last occasion Australia beat England, at Perth two years ago - outweigh those when it malfunctions and he becomes cannon-fodder.

Comments in former Australian captain Ricky Ponting's memoirs suggest a resemblance to England's own recently-retired wildly- fluctuating paceman Steve Harmison. Ponting recalled days like Perth when Johnson was "as lethal a bowler as any in my experience", but also that: "for someone so talented, such a natural cricketer and so gifted an athlete, I found his lack of self-belief astonishing."

Knowledge that Johnson is capable of turning a match in a single spell means Australia are prepared to risk the nightmare possibility of one of his off-days coinciding with an injury to Ryan Harris, their best paceman in England.

The risk is informed by a belief that England's top order may be fallible. All the indications are that Joe Root will drop down the order to fill the problematic No 6 slot, in which Paul Collingwood has still to find a clear successor, while Michael Carberry opens with Alastair Cook.

Carberry's selection at 33 rewards consistent performances for Hampshire, rescues him from the One-Test Wonder Club and completes a heart-warming comeback from a life-threatening lung condition three years ago. His fielding is also a distinct plus.

Neither Cook nor Jonathan Trott is in danger of losing his place, but another series as poor as the last could jeopardise the Ashes.

Kevin Pietersen's knee could rival Michael Clarke's back as the most-discussed body part during the series, while whichever of Matthew Prior or Jonathan Bairstow takes the keeping gloves also needs more runs than of late. Ian Bell can't be expected to go on indefinitely rescuing England from 51-for-three starts.

England's bowling looks more solid, with the main issue being to perm one giant paceman - Boyd Rankin, Steve Finn or Chris Tremlett - from three. A settled team, they will expect to keep that edge in delivering when it matters.

The Ashes should be retained, but most likely through a drawn series or a single-test margin. But if Johnson fires consistently, all bets are off.