Angela Merkel will be at the PGE Arena, but for the Greeks in Gdansk the German Chancellor is a red herring as far as likely villains go.

At least for tonight. Fernando Santos, the Portuguese who has inherited the bus bequeathed by Otto Rehhagel, his predecessor as Greece coach, has his eye on Germany's formidable frontline.

Preventing the opposition from scoring is the default starting point for Greece, of course, but this time there is good reason. Mario Gomez has finally found his feet at an international tournament and behind him Thomas Mueller, Mesut Oezil and Lukas Podolski offer a variety of ways to bypass the roadblock. The Greek defensive machine is overmatched this time. This is the first reason why the biggest mismatch in this tournament may have come in the knockout stages.

Of the three goals Greece have conceded in the tournament, two have come from crosses from the right wing after their Germany-born left-back, Jose Holebas, was beaten. Holebas was suspended for the decisive win against Russia and Giorgos Tzavelas will keep his place, but he will face the raiding Mueller, who has been involved in three of Germany's five goals from the right side. Yet the biggest problem for Greece is not the German attack, but their defence, anchored by goalkeeper Manuel Neuer and the centre-backs Holger Badstuber and Mats Hummels.

Greece scored against Poland after they lost the opening goal. They scored a consolation in their 2-1 defeat by Czech Republic after losing two early on. Even the goal they scored to beat Russia came from a losing position, when they knew that anything other than victory would send them home. Against Poland, their equaliser came from a rebound, when Dimitris Salpingidis was one of three attacking players following in a cross. That will not happen at 0-0 against Germany.

Their other goals were donated to them, one by the hesitance of Petr Cech, the Czech goalkeeper, and one by an inexplicable header from Sergei Ignashevich, the Russian left-back, that gave Giorgos Karagounis a clear run on goal. That will not happen tonight, when an attack forced to feed off scraps comes against a defence who give none away.

In the build-up to this tournament, Joachim Loew, the Germany coach, had a decision to make. In choosing a partner for Badstuber, would he go with Per Mertesacker, a rare survivor from the 2006 World Cup team and who had missed much of Arsenal's run-in? Or would he select Hummels, a team-mate of Badstuber in Bayern Munich's academy as a midfielder, now the defensive kingpin in Borussia Dortmund's Bundesliga powerhouse.

Loew went with youth, as he always seems to do, and Hummels has been one of the players of the tournament. The partnership between two 23-year-old centre-backs is one that has a decade to run at international level, and one that we could be talking about for a long time after that. "All the matches are very tight. You have to defend well to do well here. That is the roadmap to success," explained Badstuber. "We have incredible potential in attack, but nevertheless, defence is the most important aspect at such a tournament.

"Mats and I, we both understand football and defending, things work out between the two of us. Before the tournament, the defence had been made out as the weak link in our team and I think we have done nicely so far. A year ago, I had a spell in which I wasn't so strong. This last season has helped me a lot. It was an important step forward for me. I have gained lots of international experience with Bayern, and have so far played 12 of 13 competitive fixtures for Germany. This shows that the coach trusts me."

Germany are on a 14-match winning streak in competitive fixtures since the final of the World Cup in South Africa. In each of those matches, in qualification for this tournament and in the finals, they have scored the first goal. That statistic is as much about the defence that sets the table as the attack that devours the chances. Around the two old friends are Jerome Boateng and Philipp Lahm, team-mates of Badstuber at Bayern.

That suggests Greece will have to score even if they are to take the game beyond 90 minutes and that they will have to work harder to create their chance. Georgios Samaras, the Celtic forward, got the better of the lumbering Aleksandr Anyukov against Russia, but his role against Germany will to be to help keep Mueller honest and retain possession for as long as possible.

Their chances of finding a way through Badstuber and Hummels may depend on a selection decision facing Santos. Karagounis, the captain and link between the defensive legion and the one-man army up front, is suspended after a booking that was the last in a line of injustices that makes Greece's progress from Group A all the more remarkable. His wonderful meltdown after being denied a stick-on penalty and then cautioned for simulation also provided a tournament highlight and new world records for self-blessing in both the speed and endurance categories.

Does Santos replace him with Grigoris Makos, another defensive shield, or either of Georgios Fotakis or Sotiris Ninis, attacking midfielders with set- piece prowess, at either end of the experience spectrum? Loew would go for Ninis, the 22-year-old who will join Parma later this summer. But, then, he can make that kind of selection. He has the best defence in the tournament behind him.