Moneyball strategy throws up curveball

Football Writer

Saturday 16 June 2012

CELTIC might be about to have their resolve tested in their own personal game of Moneyball.

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Graeme Macpherson

Realising it was financial suicide to continue to sign high-end, established professionals with little sell-on value, chief executive Peter Lawwell instead embarked on a policy of recruiting young, under-scouted talent – often from developing nations – giving them regular exposure in the Celtic first-team, and then selling them on for vast profit. The aim would still be to win the Scottish Premier League and reach the Champions League, but the business had to be run efficiently.

It has, by and large, been a successful ploy. Emilio Izaguirre, Ki Sung-Yueng, Thomas Rogne, Biram Kayal and Victor Wanyama have been sourced from various overseas locations, while, closer to home, Adam Matthews, Joe Ledley and Gary Hooper have arrived from down south. All have proven to be shrewd acquisitions. Now comes the difficult part. Lennon is keen to hold on to his stars but the business model suggests that any excessive bids would need to be seriously considered, as was the case when Spartak Moscow offered £9m for Aiden McGeady, two years ago. With the possibility of no Old Firm games next season and Sky likely to renegotiate their broadcasting deal if that comes to pass, Celtic would be affected by the fall-out of the Rangers debacle and probably more than the other SPL clubs. That lost revenue needs to be made up.Ki, the Korean midfielder, would seem the most likely to move on – he appears well-equipped to play in the German or Italian leagues, for example – but he is not the only one likely to have suitors this summer. Izaguirre could possibly have moved on last summer had he not succumbed to a serious injury, while Kayal was regularly linked with clubs down south before the Israeli agreed to a new contract. The latest player to attract attention is Wanyama. Currently on international duty with Kenya – they play Togo in an African Cup of Nations qualifier tomorrow – and about to turn 21, the midfielder had an impressive debut season in Scottish football. Celtic paid £900,000 to sign him from Beerschot AC in Belgium 11 months ago and now there are reports of bids of up to £7m from England and Europe. That kind of profit margin would be hard to resist. The problem would be trying to appease supporters who would prefer key players to show more loyalty after being plucked from relative obscurity, while the club would be accused of a lack of ambition. Fans are interested in the team sheet, not the balance sheet. Wanyama's agent has gone to lengths to insist his client is not agitating for a move but with that came a wish that, should an opportunity arise for Wanyama to play in a more lucrative league, then Celtic would allow the player at least the opportunity to explore his options. Such an attitude is not a slight on Celtic, but on the league they find themselves in. As the £3bn television deal secured in the Barclays Premier League this week vividly demonstrates, there are riches on offer down south that a Scottish club can never hope to match. Celtic can offer players a half-decent payday, a chance to win regular honours, and the possibility of Champions League football, but in pure financial terms they will never be able to compete with even the worst team in the Barclays Premier League. It is why their best chance of snaring young talent is to get in first to emerging markets – like Honduras or Korea – or to entice players by agreeing, on the quiet, that they will not stand in a player's way should bigger clubs come calling.Celtic are not entirely powerless in all of this. Their financial situation means they are still in a position to turn down unsuitable offers, and can choose which players are expendable and which they would rather hold on to. McGeady's sale two years ago provided the funds to lure Izaguirre, Hooper, Kayal and others. The transfer of one of the sought-after members of the current squad would do likewise this time around.

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Moneyball strategy throws up curveball

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