WHO can honestly say that over the past few days they gave much thought to the idea of Ajax beating Celtic?

Was all the talk not of Celtic getting a point, maybe all three again, even knocking the Dutch out of the tournament altogether? That they beat them in Glasgow felt so fresh in the memory that it coloured the collective mood, to the point the great old Amsterdam club was virtually dismissed by many looking in on this tie. Hiding away among all the chirpy positivity were the bookmakers' sobering odds: 4/5 an Ajax win, 7/2 Celtic.

A glance at Group H this morning will drain the colour and joy out of the Champions League for Celtic. It is the first anniversary of the night that Barcelona strode into Parkhead only to be dumped on their backsides in the result which sent ripples all over Europe. That was a shock, a sensation even, but they are going to have to fell another couple of tall trees to have any chance of saving themselves this season.

Ajax and Celtic are the third and fourth seeds sitting in third and fourth positions in the group. They have exchanged home wins against each other while barely laying a glove on Barcelona and AC Milan. Celtic want desperately to be the authors of another script like Barcelona 2012, but this season's group is dying on them.

They have lost three games out of four and still have AC Milan and Barcelona to face. Maybe Celtic's remaining two fixtures look marginally more promising than Ajax's but the most likely outcome is that the Italians dig out the results they require to follow Barcelona into the last 16. Celtic may as well contemplate whether they can leapfrog Ajax with two games left to get into the Europa League. The odds are against even that.

Celtic's previous two group defeats had commendable elements but they went down tamely to Ajax, looking flat, unimaginative and eventually tired. Lasse Schone's winner was a gem of a goal, made by a move which could not have been more Ajax if Johan Cruyff, Marco van Basten and Dennis Bergkamp had bicycled to a brown cafe after the game to re-enact it on Fifa 14. This Ajax are a shadow of the old Dutch masters but, just once, there was a flash of class with the fluid geometry of passes which opened up Celtic's defence. Ajax's young team deserved it, they played more attractive football and did more to win the game. Celtic could have played all night without constructing a move as stylish as the Ajax goal.

Neil Lennon had said Celtic would attack them, but there was very little to worry his opposite number, Frank de Boer. Celtic's attempts to suffocate Ajax worked to some degree but they still had far more of the possession and created more chances in a game which had too many niggly fouls and slow spells.

None of the Celtic forwards had any zip about them. Kris Commons and Georgios Samaras were short of their best. Two goals in four games is not enough to sustain a team with any real prospects of qualifying. After they went behind, the pattern did change. Celtic played with more urgency, James Forrest got on the ball properly for the first time and there was a wonderful opening when he ought to have squared for Anthony Stokes but could not get his cross past the only Ajax defender in the way. Commons did not look sharp enough, Stokes was on the margins of everything. Samaras looked fed up and out of sorts.

Defensively Celtic were exposed only at the goal, although Stefano Denswil did hit the post with a late header. Virgil van Dijk had another commanding performance and Mikael Lustig gave a quietly classy display at right-back. Across the back they have grown to the point of looking comfortable at Champions League level. Fraser Forster, with everyone watching him like a hawk as he stands on the brink of an England cap, saved from Denswil and Siem de Jong headers but also looked a little hesitant at times and flapped horribly at one corner.

Champions League group campaigns are fertile territory for assumptions. Another two commonly heard in recent weeks were that AC Milan will not fancy coming to Parkhead and Barcelona might take their eye off the ball on matchday six because they have already qualified (and may be comparatively vulnerable). Both of those sound like clutching at straws as Celtic began the mournful retreat from Amsterdam last night.

AC Milan do look pretty ordinary by their standards but it would take another almighty Celtic effort to repeat what happened to the Italians at Parkhead in 2007. Barcelona vulnerable at Camp Nou? Well, yes, maybe, but don't bet on it. Besides, an unpalatable fact hangs over Celtic's campaign as it moves into its final third. And it undermines all their ambitions. Barca were beaten a year ago today with a winning goal from Tony Watt, a striker. The squad has four recognised front men now: Samaras, Stokes, Teemu Pukki and Amido Balde. They do not have a group goal among them.