analysis When it comes to winning at Augusta, it helps to be young at heart, writes Alasdair Reid

With only a handful of recent exceptions, most of them called Tiger Woods, the famous green jacket has generally ended up on the shoulders of players who have passed their 30th birthdays. Woods apart, twenty-somethings have won the Masters just three times -- and Larry Mize (1987), Jose Maria Olazabal (1994) and Trevor Immelman (2008) were all seasoned professionals by the time of their Augusta triumphs.

Of course, traditionalists should be rather pleased that the year’s first major appears to reward the considered approach of the more experienced player rather than the impetuosity of youth. That was certainly the intention of Bobby Jones, the legendary player and co-founder of Augusta National Golf Club, who oversaw the work of Scottish architect Dr Alister MacKenzie as the course was first laid out almost 80 years ago.

“We want to make bogies easy if frankly sought,” Jones explained. “Pars should be readily available by standard good play and birdies, except on par-5’s, dearly bought.” The principles are straightforward enough, but it usually takes a few years for them to fully sink in.

When the 21-year-old Woods obliterated the field at Augusta in 1997, winning by 12 shots, it seemed that golf had just experienced the greatest paradigm shift of its history. Woods, it was suggested in one earnest analysis after another, had ushered in the era of youth, power and athleticism.

The following year, 17-year-old Justin Rose came within a whisker of winning the Open at Royal Birkdale. Another year later, it was Sergio Garcia, then just 19, who swashbuckled his way into second place at the PGA Championship at Medinah. It seemed that 20 was the new 40 in golf. The sport’s commentators lined up the pipes and slippers for the hallowed old goats of the past.

At which point, the goats got frisky again. In the three years following Woods’ breakthrough, the Masters was won by a 41-year-old (Mark O’Meara), a 33-year-old (Olazabal) and a 37-year-old (Vijay Singh). In the decade since Singh’s victory, the dominant figure apart from Woods has been Phil Mickelson who only started his collection of green jackets in his mid-30’s after he had excised the youthful recklessness that had disfigured his game in the past.

Mickelson’s career trajectory maps his Masters learning curve. Time and again he had backed out of contention with snatched putts, or balls dropped into Rae’s Creek at critical moments. Augusta demands the most judicious kind of brilliance, and it punishes foolhardiness like no other course on Earth. When Mickelson took that lesson on board, he made his breakthough.

The game’s acknowledged giants -- Arnold Palmer, Jack Nicklaus, Tom Watson, Gary Player -- all won their first Masters before their 30th birthdays, a factor that has skewed the average age of a maiden victory at Augusta down to 31.66 years. In which light, you might feel tempted to have a punt on Graeme McDowell (age 31.66), especially at the generous price of 50/1 being offered by one bookmaker. But should you risk your cash on any of his younger playmates?

The fact that Matteo Manassero, then just 16, made the cut at last year’s event might encourage you to do so. But the Italian teenager, who won the Castello Masters in October after turning professional, missed the cut at last weekend’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, which was his last chance of securing a place in the Augusta field. However, there are others who will command even more attention.

None more than Japan’s Ryo Ishikawa, the 19-year-old whose every move and utterance is recorded by a 50-strong entourage of Japanese journalists and photographers. Ishikawa is 45th in the world rankings at the moment, but he is probably flattered by that position as his performances anywhere other than in his homeland have been distinctly ordinary of late.

In the same kindergarten section, Rory McIlroy looks the likelier lad right now. No player has done so much so young as the boy from County Down who shot to public prominence in the Open Championship at Carnoustie four years ago. Yet the one thing McIlroy, now 21, has not done of late is win a tournament, his victory at Quail Hollow last April being the last time he finished top of the pile.

The only other really young player you would look to is Rickie Fowler, the Justin Bieber of American golf. Fowler, 22, at least has form on his side at the moment, with top-10 finishes in the two most recent World Golf Championship events. What he lacks, however, is experience of the course, and rookie winners are only slightly more numerous than women members at Augusta.

Martin Kaymer, the German 26-year-old world No.1, has a wretched Masters record, having missed the cut in each of his three appearances. However, his PGA triumph last year followed top-10s at the US Open and its British equivalent, so when it comes to majors he is unquestionably on a hot streak.

And yet, a sub-30 winner is still more likely to be American than any other nationality. A few prodigies aside, the USA has struggled to produce players of calibre in that age range in the past, but there is now a decent clutch of competitors. Sean O’Hair, Jason Day, Ryan Moore and Anthony Kim could yet emerge from the pack.

But the best of the bunch is clearly Nick Watney, the Californian who seems to contend in every event he plays. On the Masters’ final day, Watney will be just two weeks away from turning 30. Old enough to look good in a green jacket.