AS THE rah-rah-rah bandwagon gathers pace, with plans for a celebratory spectacular for Scottish Olympians in September, here's a sobering thought: four years from now, Brexit and an independent Scotland could be reality. Scotland may have an Olympic team come Tokyo 2020.

That might help burnish national identity but would diminish the lustre of Scottish medals. Would we be planning such a celebration for just gold, silver, and bronze from Andy Murray, Callum Skinner and Sally Conway respectively? The feel-good factor would be much muted.

The 10 other medals which Scots brought home from Rio were in team events: rowing, canoeing, cycling, rugby, and relays in athletics and swimming – all in partnership with athletes from the rest of the UK. They would not qualify for an independent Scotland medal count.

Time for a reality check. Without Murray, Skinner and Conway in Rio, Team GB would have remained second, but Scotland would have ranked 48th on the medal table, one bronze better than Bahrain and Vietnam. Rewind to London 2012. Individual gold from Murray and Sir Chris Hoy, plus silver from Michael Jamieson, would have ranked Scotland 35th, between Norway and Tunisia. In Sydney 2000 Scotland won no individual medal.

From the 100m gold by Allan Wells in 1980 there was not another individual Olympic title by a Scot until Hoy's kilometre sprint title in 2000. Of 136 Summer Olympic medals won by Scots since 1896, only 55 have been individual ones.

Come 2020, athletes like Skinner (team sprint gold with Philip Hindes and Jason Kenny, born in Germany and England respectively), and David Florence (silver in canoe slalom with Englishman Richard Hounslow) would need to find Scots capable of partnering them. Or opt to remain "British". Ditto Katie Archibald. There was one Welsh woman and two English riders in the gold-medal team pursuit squad, and Heather Stanning would need a Scottish partner should she opt to continue rowing.

The Independence White Paper said Scottish athletes would be free to choose Scotland or the likes of "Team GB" provided they met relevant qualifying criteria.

"Scottish performance programmes have been significantly improved in recent years," report sportscotland. But team sport issues are complex. There were two Scots in the silver-medal sevens squad. Finding the critical mass of players capable of qualifying a Scottish sevens team for the Olympics is problematic. Hockey would find it even tougher, having not a single player in either the men's or women's squad in Rio.

At the moment sportscotland funds sevens and hockey because they're Commonwealth Games sports. In a Scotland with Olympic status, and success prospects in sevens and hockey even more remote, they risk sliding down the pecking order. Non-Olympic sports, like cricket, could find it even tougher.

Competitors who have become world-class in partnership with non-Scots would face a dilemma. They have done so bankrolled by UK Sport funding but might feel the need to continue competing for the rump of Britain to maintain security of support, rather than risk gambling on finding Scottish partners.

Figures this week, suggesting Scotland would have a bigger budget deficit than Greece, will discourage confidence in those on National Lottery support which pays mortgages, groceries, housekeeping, and fills the car. Even the most loyal Scot with a shiny new passport – especially those in team sports and relay contenders – may opt to remain with what's left of the UK.

Look no further than badminton's Robert Blair who quit Scotland for England because there was no world-class mixed doubles partner on the horizon. Or cyclist Hindes who formerly competed for Germany (winning a world junior medal) but was lured to GB by better funding and coaching.

Judo's Conway, two sevens players, and the silver-medal 200m freestyle quartet are based in Scotland but nine medals came from England-based competitors.

Brexit was conspicuous for lack of contingency planning, but sportscotland assured us then that they had worked closely with the Scottish Government to ensure that whatever the outcome of the independence referendum, Scottish competitors would be well-equipped. "Following Brexit, there could be another independence referendum in Scotland in the near future," acknowledged a sportscotland spokesperson yesterday. "If that is the case, we will be prepared to provide the best possible levels of support for Scottish athletes whatever our nation’s constitutional future shall be."

This despite grim economic forecasts, and oil revenue halved.

Then sports minister Shona Robison suggested more Scots would have Olympic opportunity in the event of independence, but this defies logic. If the two Scottish eights gold medallists can't find six more like them in Scotland, why would they be entitled to tens of thousands in investment to match that from UKS?

Current UK Sport funding is highly medal-oriented. Sportscotland hardly could afford to do otherwise, given the proven success of the former. But it is dependent on the National Lottery, whose future, come independence, "is a matter for the Scottish Government and would be determined by the outcome of negotiations between them and the UK Government," confirm sportscotland.

The lottery license runs to 2023, but a Scottish lottery, were one to be introduced, could not compete with current lottery sales. Or prizes.

Sport's future in Olympic Scotland would inevitably be uncertain. In the tight fiscal climate post independence, sport risks being low priority. Currently, Commonwealth Games sports are the main focus. There were 17 in Glasgow 2014. There are 26 Summer Olympic sports and 15 Winter ones.