For sportswriters or sports columnists, making tips or "predictions" - that dreaded word - is the booby-trap terrain of the business.
All of us know it. You are asked, foolishly, to make a prediction of some fate or other, and so on you go, for the most part mentally blindfolded as to what the future might hold.
Most of us have come to view the exercise in a faintly light-hearted vein, and my own rule of thumb is taken from the late Alex Cameron, and makes very little sense indeed.
Alex - or 'Chiefy' as he was known - was one of sportswriting's great predicters. He never once shirked the challenge to guess an outcome, and would sometimes, in his keenness for the pursuit, even offer scorers' names as well as full-time results in matches.
One day 'Chiefy' said to me: "If you are making a tip, make it robustly and with absolute conviction…even when you feel you haven't a clue." It was a senseless, pretty comical piece of advice which I took to heart.
Which brings me to John 'Yogi' Hughes, who right now is a terrific manager for Inverness Caledonian Thistle. Hughes's team, against all odds, currently lie joint-top in the Scottish Premiership, and last night ripped St Mirren asunder 4-0 to advance to the fifth round of the Scottish Cup.
It is now a year since Hughes took over in the Highlands, and two other aspects are notable.
First, he has spent next to no money in that time, and has resisted any frantic turnover of players. Second, he did what can be very tough for a new manager, but has done so successfully - Terry Butcher was a highly credible ICT manager, but Hughes appears to be bettering him.
So far, so very, very good, you have to say. Which is not how I and a few others saw it when Hughes was picked up off the scrap-heap by ICT, having been binned by Hartlepool, last December.
He seemed to me a bit of a spent character. For the life of me, his CV did not stand out in a crowd. There was also a tendency to denigrate, even lampoon Hughes, which I hate to think influenced my outlook, though it might have.
I couldn't see Hughes being a success in Inverness, and said so whenever someone paid me to either write or open my mouth. "I'm surprised, and I doubt it will work," I proclaimed brazenly.
Okay…so that's top of the league, unbeaten at home now in nine matches this season, and lauded for their passing football.
Yep, that prediction worked out. And I'm delighted.
Just about everything, barring Sir Alex Ferguson's success, is ephemeral in football. It passes, it expires, it runs its course. Let's see how 'Yogi' and Caley Thistle are doing this time next year. For all I know, he could even be binned by then, the game is that chaotic.
In the here and now, I owe John Hughes an apology. He is proving to have not just mettle, but the ability to infuse his players with conviction. It is a knack any football manager would crave.
It most certainly is not looking good for Tommy Craig at St Mirren. The phrase "he is done for" springs to mind.
Tuesday night's horse-whipping at the hands of Caley Thistle surely means Craig is fast running out of time in his job.
Dumped out of the Cup, currently joint-bottom in the Premiership, St Mirren's abysmal form this season so far reads: P18 W3 D3 L12. Their fans, moreover, are irate and staying away in their droves.
I actually like and admire Tommy Craig, who has had various successful episodes in football, at St Mirren, Hibs, Celtic and elsewhere. He was also, by the way, a highly intelligent and gifted player.
But that was then, and this is now. It will be a miracle if Craig manages to turn around his St Mirren fortunes.
He was an unpopular appointment in the first place as Danny Lennon's successor at St Mirren - which needn't be of any significance at all. It was merely up to Craig, through his work, to win supporters round.
If anything, he appears to have done exactly the opposite.
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