IF we have learned anything from this tortuous Rangers story that has slithered into every aspect of Scottish footballing life, it is that only the bold, rash or foolish would try to predict just what might happen next.

Like some sort of Daliesque nightmare, rules, regulations, concepts and opinions that had seemed rigid and unbendable have become increasingly fluid and flexible. If the new season does not start on time it may be because some people keep moving the goalposts.

Henry McLeish, the former first minister and author of an extensive report into the state of the game, had said on Wednesday that he hoped today's vote at Hampden on whether to allow Rangers newco into the Scottish Football League and in which division would represent some kind of watershed. "I just want them to make a decision and find a home for Rangers," he said. "If it is in the third division, we accept that. If it's in the first division, we accept that. But what we must not do is have another inquest or inquiry into any decision that is made."

Good luck with that, sir. For if the projections are accurate and the SFL clubs do not waiver from the stance they have adopted in recent weeks – and you would be a brave man to bet the mortgage on anything these days – then the motion to allow Rangers into the first division will likely be defeated. And then what?

Well, if McLeish's words are to be heeded, the decision of the voting clubs will be respected and Ally McCoist's second season in management will commence with Rangers striving to win the third division. And the band played believe it if you like. For Stewart Regan, chief executive of the Scottish Football Association, and Neil Doncaster, his counterpart at the Scottish Premier League, have painted such a bleak picture of the financial devastation that they believe will occur if Sevco Scotland Ltd are not parachuted into the first division that it seems hard to believe either man will simply let the matter drop. Regan, in particular, got so worked up when he spoke about the "slow, lingering death" of the game if Rangers were to start at the bottom that it would surely be such a source of embarrassment and frustration if the clubs simply elected to ignore his warning that he may have little choice but to intervene personally.

And intervention, of course, would mean the formation of an SPL2, a threat that has been left hanging in the air in recent weeks as the SFL clubs consulted their consciences and fans over the right course of action ahead of today's vote. That, though, would create a logistical nightmare and arouse such a feeling of hostility from clubs and fans alike that it would surely be impossible to get it off the ground in time for the new season.

If Regan and Doncaster, however, remain convinced that commercial sponsors would withdraw from the game quicker than the Allied forces out of Dunkirk if Rangers were not in the top two tiers of the game, and several clubs would tumble into the financial abyss as a result, then the pair may decide it better to force through the new league anyway, regardless of public opinion. Better a solvent game with unhappy fans and chairmen, they may decide, than a product bankrupt in all but moral integrity.

But who would join Rangers in any synthetic second tier? As of last night, not one first-division club had indicated publicly a willingness to allow the newco to start next season alongside them. Are we to believe the promise of a few extra quid would see them immediately abandon their principles and agree to be a part of the new set-up? It seems unlikely. The SPL, then, could find themselves going further and further down the leagues to find nine or so teams willing to break rank and make up the numbers. If most senior clubs were to stick to their guns, Rangers could find themselves vying for the SPL2 title against the likes of Renfrew Juniors, Burntisland Shipyard, and Dukla Pumpherston.

There would also be the contentious issue of Rangers being involved at all. After all, was it not just a week or so ago that the SPL clubs voted that the newco could not join their organisation? So how could that decision be overturned to allow them into the SPL, even if it was the second tier? And would the existing SPL clubs simply accept it having made their original choice "overwhelmingly"? It seems such a guddle and would lead to such acrimony that you wonder just how Scottish football could ever possibly recover. That's not to say it won't happen. And all just to keep some sponsors on side.