The Tenner Bet

Deputy Sports Editor

Saturday 26 May 2012

Perception can have a funny effect on how one picks out a bet, even when it shouldn't (note last week's Tenner Bet for evidence to the contrary).

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James Morgan

There's a certain 'told-you-so' element attached to the culmination of the process, but only after a successful outcome and I have long been suspicious of the gambler who is only too eager to tell you of his wins but less likely to spill all on the losses.

An example of what I mean is this. It had been my perception that the Football League play-offs are regularly high-scoring encounters and that ever since they were moved to Wembley in 1991, both teams always – or at least nearly always – scored. But get this. In the 20 years since the play-off final became a one-off match there have been more games that have either been won to nil or finished goalless than there have been games which had both teams scoring. The figure is weighted 11-9 in favour of the former market which, while hardly compelling evidence, certainly runs counter to my perception of how these matches usually pan out.The idea that today's final between Huddersfield Town and Sheffield United could end without one or the other scoring, given that they possess two players whose names sit atop the League One top goalscorer chart, appears at first glance to be fanciful. But then one of those players is Ched Evans, who is serving a five-year sentence following a high-profile criminal case. Rather foolishly, the Sheffield United supporters have used a number of opportunities to show their support for their former striker, who has scored 35 goals in all competitions this season, no doubt a measure of how important the player has been to their promotion push. Certainly, United tailed off in the regular season after Evans was sentenced, but given the circumstances of the case the action of these supporters appears particularly ill-advised. Equally important to Huddersfield has been Jordan Rhodes, who has scored 37 goals in all competitions and was Town's hero against MK Dons in the semi-finals. The Scotland Under-21 striker must be worthy of consideration in the 'score anytime' market, as is another with Scottish links, Rhodes' forward partner Lee Novak, who began his professional career at Gretna, and has 17 to his name.Despite all this talk of goals, the two league meetings between these sides ended with one win to nil each – Huddersfield recording a 3-0 victory at Bramhall Lane in September with United exacting revenge with a 1-0 at the Galpharm Stadium in February.The perception line takes a further knock with an analysis of the semi-finals that took Town and United to Wembley this afternoon. Only one of the four games – Huddersfield's 2-1 defeat by MK Dons – brought goals for both teams and hints that the prize for reaching the Championship can be viewed in purely financial terms – £3.7m more from Sky in television money alone before taking into account payouts for final placings.Selection No in both teams to score market (11/10, general)Season's total -£22.13

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