The Tenner Bet

Deputy Sports Editor

Saturday 9 June 2012

The Tenner Bet doesn't make a habit of writing about events that are already underway.

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James Morgan

We can, however, make an exception for Euro 2012 this week, since outright prices will have been relatively unaffected by last night's matches and because we can say with some certainty that none of those teams involved will contest the final in just under a month's time.

If that dismisses Greece, winners in 2004, and Russia, semi-finalists at the last edition, too lightly, then good – neither side are as talented or, more specifically, as obdurate as their predecessors.None the less, Group A will be a pivotal one at this year's championship, not least because it is relatively weak and should go some way to determining which team from Group B has the easiest passage to the semi-finals. Should, as expected, Germany win a group containing Netherlands, Portugal and Denmark, then it is relatively safe to assume they should have too much for Poland, Greece or Czech Republic. Of course, that assessment presumes Russia win Group A but even if they don't, Germany have never lost to them in six meetings and, one would imagine, would have significant momentum for it not to be a problem this time around, either.There is general consensus that Germany are better-equipped to win the Euros than they were four years ago when they reached the final.Certainly, there is more creativity and dynamism in reserve in the shape of Borussia Dortmund schemer Mario Goetze and the strong-running Marco Reus, should starters such as Mesut Oezil and Thomas Mueller fall below their admittedly high standards.However, Germany are a best-priced 3/1 to win in Poland and Ukraine and that kind of value isn't good enough for me, especially when one considers who might be lurking in the last four. France, as Group D winners, would be scheduled to meet Jogi Loew's side in Warsaw on June 28 and there are warning signs. France defeated the Germans in Bremen as recently as February and historically have the beating of them, boasting 11 wins to the Germans' seven in matches between the pair (one of which includes the shambolic 1982 World Cup semi-final in which Harold Schumacher, the West Germany goalkeeper, remained on the pitch after a despicable challenge on Patrick Battison and went on to save two penalties in the first World Cup penalty shoot-out).Yes, Les Bleus have been a pale imitation (let's call them Les Sky Bleus) of the teams of the late 90s and early 2000s, riven with in-fighting and weak leadership, but that has changed under Laurent Blanc, who has forged a formidable team ethic in the two years since a very public falling out between Raymond Domenech and most of his squad at the World Cup.In the other half of the draw, there are questions marks over both Spain and Netherlands, who contested the last World Cup final. Spain have lost their main source of goals in the shape of David Villa. The Dutch, too, have familiar concerns, with Robin Van Persie making noises about a lack of cohesion with his midfield. That said, Klaas-Jan Huntelaar is the main man in attack for the Dutch. He scored a barrowload in qualifying and had a prolific season in the Bundesliga with Schalke 04, so the concern over Van Persie is not as great as it might be were he the chief provider of goals.Selections France (10/1) to win, Klaas-Jan Huntelaar to win Golden Boot (18/1, general) Total -£21.13

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