The Tenner Bet

Saturday 7 July 2012

WE are entering that time in the calendar which the Tenner Bet disparagingly refers to as The Abyss.

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I'm talking about that desperate trawl through the sporting landscape for something, anything, on which to lose one's money. Often without any an inkling of why the sporting event arrived at is worthy of consideration.

The more observant among you might well be thinking aimless punts are, in fact, this column's raison d'etre, but I long ago came to the conclusion that sentient human beings gave up on trying to figure out the point to its existence a long time ago (probably the week, I staked 50 quid on the Grand National and won £35 – or £15, if we're being entirely accurate).There is one clear difference to this week's offering, this time I won't even attempt to fool myself that I'm some kind of authority on what I'm about to write next.Indeed, so far into the unknown am I going that this week's bet is on a sport which has never before appeared in this column, for various reasons ranging from ignorance and apathy to indifference and downright loathing. That sport is Formula One. Not since the days of Prost, Mansell and Senna has the Tenner Bet given a TV screen displaying a fast car careering around a track more than a passing glance at.It's all just so artificial for me and the presence of KERS, the equivalent of a nitro boost in a computerised car racing game, or any of the other enhancements that are dependant on money and tinkering rather than raw driving skills, merely reaffirms the artifice.One F1 devotee in The Herald office recently gave me a dressing down for suggesting the reason there are no indicators on the cars was because no-one overtakes. This observation was made prior to the Monaco Grand Prix during which Red Bull's Mark Webber led those at the top of the grid on a funeral procession to the finish line, albeit a very, very fast funeral.And so, because any attempt at serious analysis in this sport is futile, I am using a very basic approach to selecting a prospective winner – a sort of anti-Higgs method, if you will.A quick scan of the previous winners of the British Grand Prix throws up the kind of trend I like to see, no matter how simplistic that might seem. Six drivers who will line up for tomorrow's race have won at Silverstone before and I am a firm believer that past experience is a solid indicator of future success. Lewis Hamilton has previous form here, as does Sebastian Vettel, while Fernando Alonso, the current drivers' championship leader, has won twice. But this season has been the most open in recent memory, with seven different winners of the eight races so far.To that end, Webber, who won here in 2010 and was third last year, appears to represent an excellent bet at 12/1. According to the experts, he raises his game for Silverstone and given that his stablemate Vettel is a shade over 2/1 in the same car, seems to be significantly better value.Selection Mark Webber to win the British GP (12/1, general)Season's total -£38.13

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