Funny thing perception, isn't it?
How one man's freedom fighter is another's terrorist, how a sociopath is a revered political leader and how one person's joyrider is another's experienced driver with Police Scotland's traffic unit.
I refer, specifically, to the high-performance vehicle that hurtled past me in the early hours of Tuesday on the M74 approach to Hamilton. I was struck by the noise of the vehicle, a low, intimidating groan that evinced a mental image of a World War II bomber. I was reminded, too, of a Formula One race, as said police car veered from one lane to another without indicating – you know, the kind of manoeuvre the rest of us would be pulled over for?
Above all, I was reminded of the absence of a grand prix this weekend to rescue an ailing season's total. As it is, it's more racing this week. Horsepower, but not the kind found under the bonnet of Ford Mondeo emblazoned with blue and yellow decals. Perhaps it was a sign.
Today's 2000 Guineas at Newmarket contains two horses wearing those colours, Correspondent and Moohaajim. They are, at time of writing, trading at 100/1 and 25/1 respectively. In normal circumstances, that might have us looking elsewhere but this is a race that has thrown up some big-priced winners, albeit in the last two years the winner has carried the most money.
2000 GUINEAS
Aidan O'Brien has a terrific record with five winners in the past decade, including Camelot last year. Interestingly, that victory was only the third time since 1999 that the favourite had taken the honours with winners ranging from anything between 9/2 and 33/1. In theory, that brings just about every horse into play but, as ever, there are some clear observations we can make about those winners.
For example, 12 of the last 13 had won at seven or eight furlongs, the same number had a 50% or better win ratio, and all had been sired by a Group 1 winner. There are strong stats for this race and there is every reason to believe they are stronger than those we have looked at in recent weeks, a period that has brought three third-placed finishers.
When all measures are applied, a long list of five emerges – Garswood, George Vancouver, Van der Neer, Toronado, and the unbeaten even-money favourite Dawn Approach, the son of New Approach who was just edged out by Henrythenavigator in 2008. The latter pair are the most interesting, explaining why they sit at the top of the betting. Of the two, preference is for Toronado (2/1). Timeform notes: "If conditions come up on the firm side, Toronado is a most fluent mover, while market leader Dawn Approach is unraced on firmer than good and doesn't have a style that's so befitting to quicker conditions."
The ground is reported good to firm, making the Richard Hannon-trained horse the clear play. There are each-way contenders, too, in O'Brien's George Vancouver (16/1), and Hannon's second-string, Van der Neer (20/1). There are better prices on the latter elsewhere but if you go with Ladbrokes they are paying money back should Dawn Approach prevail.
SEASON'S TOTAL
Another third-placed finisher last weekend in Away We Go but this time without an each-way recommendation. It's worth noting Willie Mullins' horse likely would have won the bet365 Gold Cup had it not smashed through the second last to kill its momentum. In any case, Dover's Hill was a non-runner, so the losses weren't as big as they might have been. The total is £58.97.
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