THE World Cup qualifiers have come around again and that can mean but one thing:
a bet on something else entirely. It can be said with some certainty that international football is not a favourite of this column. It requires merely a quick recall of last month's 1-0 win for Northern Ireland over Russia as proof of why it tends to give gamblers the yips.
Russia were something around 1/3 to beat Michael O'Neill's side at Windsor Park, not least because the Irish hadn't won since the former Dundee United and Hibernian midfielder took over in December 2011 - a full nine matches. In essence, it all comes down to prices, thus it requires a betting slip resembling a list of entrants for the EuroVision Song Contest to actually make gambling on international football a profitable exercise and that's only if the minnows don't turn out to be piranhas in disguise and take a big chunk out of the sharks.
Anyway, enough of this tortured marine analogy. It's bad enough admitting my failures to myself without broadcasting them ad nauseam. Instead, we'll be looking at the F1 as the season enters its final laps. This weekend, the tifosi will be in full voice at Monza for the Italian Grand Prix in anticipation of a win for Ferrari.
THE RACE
The track at Monza is not conventional. It is old and narrow and favours cars with the best straight line speed and low down force. This is a negative for Red Bull and a positive for Ferrari, good news for the newly reconfigured McLaren but no so much for the Lotus. That said, the Red Bull is such a good all-rounder it is impossible to rule it out based on such a small downside, while Mercedes have refined this area and Lewis Hamilton should be in contention once more.
What is the significance of straight line speed and low down force? Well, Sebastian Vettel won last month's Belgian Grand Prix at a canter but was followed home by Fernando Alonso who came from ninth place to take second.
If the latter can improve in qualifying then his hopes of a win will be greatly enhanced. Furthermore, Monza plays into the Ferrari's hands even more than Spa did, so there is every reason to believe the Spaniard will give the German a more stringent test this time.
A victory is imperative if Alonso is to prevent Vettel claiming a third successive drivers' championship and he will take some heart from Red Bull's double withdrawal in this race last season, as well as his team's rich history of winning it - 19 times in total.
THE BET
Alonso to win is a general price of 4/1 pre- qualifying and is worthy of consideration despite Ferrari not having won here since 2010. Perhaps of greater significance is that Red Bull have a poor record at Monza with just one win while the Spaniard has two victories of his own in different cars.
So, too, does Vettel but we're looking for some value and at 7/4 the German doesn't represent it, given some of the concerns Monza presents. Jenson Button is 6/4 for a top-six finish, a feat he has achieved in three of his last six races in an ever-improving car that will be well suited by the track.
SEASON'S TOTAL
There are small signs that the losing habit has returned given the results of the last two weekends. Nevertheless, with a week to go until the profit margins return to zero The Tenner Bet will end another year in the black. The total stands at £188.46
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules hereComments are closed on this article