Cycling: Green for go, yellow for danger is verdict of former star Smith

"Stages one, five, six, seven, 10, 12, 13 and 21 are going to suit Cav," said Smith, now a commentator with British Eurosport. "Stages two and 14 are also possibilities so there are 10 opportunities there. With 21 stages, that's almost half."

The biggest threat to Cavendish, 28, is likely to be the Slovakian wunderkind and reigning champion Cannondale's Peter Sagan. "Cannondale are there solely for Sagan so he will have a good team around him, but I still think Cavendish is faster in a straight sprint," Smith said.

"For me, Cav is favourite for the green jersey, although Sagan can get over some of the climbs and possibly steal some of the points. I think, though, there are enough sprint stages where Cav will beat Sagan."

Smith rates Cavendish as being "in his best shape of the past few years", but thinks the famed firepower of Sagan, 23, could be dulled by his efforts on the slopes.

In the Tour de Suisse, Sagan won a stage and was up there with some of the climbing specialists," Smith said. "I think if he is climbing that well, it could possibly detract from his sprint."

Cavendish will also be bolstered by his win at the British National Road Race Championships in Glasgow last Sunday, said Smith, who added: "Cav likes a jersey and likes to stand out. He is always one of those riders who goes into a race looking for a classification jersey.

"He rides on confidence and likes a jersey and all the attention that goes with it. That's why the British championships jersey was so important for him – it's a pride thing and he likes looking different."

Smith is less sure about Chris Froome's chances of going one better than last summer when he finished second in the overall general classification behind his fellow team Sky rider Sir Bradley Wiggins.

The Kenyan-born 28-year-old has made no bones that he is certain this will be his year and in recent months his status as favourite has grown ever stronger.

Yet Alberto Contador (Saxo-Tinkoff) has vowed to give Froome a run for his money, with Smith predicting that the Spaniard, winner of the Tour in 2007 and 2009 and back after his two-year doping ban, won't sit back and watch Sky glide unchallenged to glory.

"Sky will try to control the race tightly but Contador is a fighter," Smith said. "Contador knows the Sky ride tempo – they sit on the front and look at their power meters. What he has in his armoury is that he attacks, sits down, then attacks again in a bid to constantly try to break their rhythm."

However, Smith reckons accusations that Sky's controlling style of racing has dulled the thrill for many spectators isn't entirely fair. "It's no different to playing a defensive game in football; it's all about the end result," he said. "Cycling is not as entertaining as it used to be, but Sky are very effective at what they do."

No one team, Smith says, will have the Tour wrapped up in the first couple of weeks. Stages 15 and 16, which sandwich a rest day, are among those he tips for fireworks.

"You have a big stage on Mont Ventoux which lends itself to lots of attacking, followed by a rest day which some of the guys will come out of better than others," he said. "Then comes the stage into Gap, which precedes the time trial, and could see some major action to try and shake things up.

"Sky have the red-hot favourite so the other teams will have to go out there and attack them. "There may be some collusion between riders, chiefly the Spanish.

"Then there's the crucial part the weather will play. In 2009, crosswinds led to the peloton splitting and Contador missed it by only two or three wheels. It doesn't matter how strong a team you have: that can happen to anyone."