This is the scenario concerning Mars, Aidan O'Brien's promising colt.
The horse made a successful debut with the minimum of fuss at Dundalk in Ireland yesterday.
Quoted at 12-1 for the Epsom showpiece, Mars made most of the running to take an EBF Maiden. Jockey Joseph O'Brien brought the son of 2001 Derby hero Galileo from his wide draw over to the rail before taking the lead.
Winding up the gallop, the 4-7 shot pulled clear from the furlong pole to beat his stable companion The Ferryman by four and three-quarter lengths with My Rules third.
Odds layer Paddy Power, who had Mars at 16-1 before yesterday's race, clipped him into 12-1 favourite for the Derby. "He first entered our solar system in the middle of June when we put him in our Derby betting and gallop watchers with telescopes who snapped up the fancy prices will be laughing after that debut," said the Irish bookmaker.
After the Dundalk race, Joseph O'Brien said: "He has a really good attitude and is very uncomplicated. We have been waiting a while for a bit of nice ground. He would have had no problem starting off over six. He's a lovely horse. He was green as it's his first run and he made the running – you very rarely see them win on the bridle doing that. He won nicely and will come on for it."
Elsewhere, Kieren Fallon believes Mount Athos would have a live chance in the Melbourne Cup. The former John Hills-trained five-year-old joined Luca Cumani after a short spell with David Wachman, and owner Dr Marwan Koukash was talking of sending him on the long trip after his win at York on Saturday.
The so-called 'race that stops a nation' is one Cumani has come agonisingly close to winning in the past.
"I'll be honest, I've always liked him since I rode him in the spring but I hadn't ridden him on the course," said Fallon. "When I rode him at home I thought he could have been a Gold Cup horse.
"He hasn't had his ground and he's been pulled out of a few races, but he's come good at the right time. I was hoping they'd go a stronger gallop, they didn't go very quick so I thought he did well to win as he did off a slow gallop.
"He'd had a live shout in the Ebor but the Melbourne Cup is a race everybody wants to win as it's worth a lot of money.
"He'd definitely have a live chance as he's got early speed, which you need to get a good position in the Melbourne Cup, he stays well, he's got a turn of foot and he'll go on any ground as long as it's not too soft."
Worcester's jumps meeting tomorrow is under threat from water on the track. An inspection will be held at 7.45 this morning.
