It has never been wise to bet on Formula One and the bookmakers must have been celebrating as much as any of the teams at the climax of an error-strewn, weather-interrupted Malaysian Grand Prix in Sepang yesterday.

Quite apart from the remarkable statistic that nine different constructors finished in the points, nobody was predicting in advance that Fernando Alonso would take the chequered flag with a blistering drive which proved he has lost none of the powers which earned him two world titles, even if he was driving what David Coulthard described as "a dog" of a car.

Nor, for that matter, were the cognoscenti tipping Sauber's Sergio Perez to be challenging for GP victories at this stage of his career, and yet the young Mexican pushed his exalted rival all the way to the finish line and, but for a late driving error, might even have passed the Ferrari. Perhaps, in the circumstances, it wasn't surprising that Lewis Hamilton looked slightly surprised to be on the podium, while Sebastian Vettel and Jenson Button meandered home out of contention. All of which merely confirmed the truth of Hollywood writer William Goldman's adage: "Nobody knows anything."

Once the dust had settled, what we could discern was that Red Bull, so dominant in the 2011 campaign, are facing a much tougher battle to cling on to their crown. Vettel and Mark Webber have been thoroughly out-performed by the McLarens, to the extent that the English organisation will surely be disappointed that, somehow or other, they have not steamed ahead in the championship standings. Instead, and almost incredibly, it is Alonso who tops the list, yet he is too much of a realist to be singing from the rooftops. On the contrary, while his colleagues were loudly proclaiming the success of the Prancing Horse, it was noticeable that their prime asset was sounding notes of caution. He knows that Ferrari lack a competitive edge when the conditions are dry, which they will be at the majority of the circuits. In short, Alonso might have celebrated his 28th GP win – only Michael Schumacher, Alain Prost, Ayrton Senna and Nigel Mansell are still above him – but he was at pains to stress the result changed nothing, it was achieved in strange conditions, and life will continue to be taxing.

None the less, he has another win, unlike Hamilton, who surged to pole on Saturday, but was unable to emulate Button's exploits in Australia and translate that into a 25-point haul for himself and McLaren. In his defence, there were problems in the pits, amid the rain, re-starts and general chaos, with one stop in particular more closely resembling an out-take from 'Police Squad' than a finely-drilled demonstration of technical expertise. But Hamilton's body language isn't right at the moment. He looked saturnine in Melbourne last weekend, almost as if he couldn't bear to share the same space as Button, and his reaction to another third place – "I can't really complain. I was on the podium for the second race in a row" – rang hollow.

At his best, Hamilton possesses the ability to seize these contests by the scruff of the neck and prey on the weakness of his opponents. But yesterday, with Vettel perpetrating some uncharacteristic mistakes, and Button reduced to bit-part status, there was an opportunity. In these circumstances, Hamilton seems to have lost some of the adrenaline-spark which made him such a formidable adversary. Perhaps he needs to push the limits – and damn the consequences – to propel him into the winning zone. Nobody should dismiss his chances at this stage, especially when one considers how McLaren have wrested the initiative away from the Red Bulls, but Hamilton in pragmatic mode is only half the driver he is when blazing his own trail. Nor is he comfortable with the new breed of drivers who have burst into the spotlight recently. Perez produced a thrilling display and Scotland's Paul Di Resta enhanced his reputation by transcending his difficulties in qualifying to finish in seventh (from 14th on the grid). Di Resta is having to fight for whatever comes his way, but he never thought F1 would be easy and has responded to the challenges faced by the Force India team with admirable tenacity.

Ultimately, Alonso could have basked in victory, but down-played it. Hamilton tried to be diplomatic and it rang false. Such are the fine margins between the elite.