It's not often the Tenner Bet gets to report a 33/1 winner, rarer still for that 33/1 winner to improve to a 66/1 winner by the time it crosses the line on a Saturday afternoon.

Okay, 'winner' is perhaps being a tad economical with the truth. However, Five Dream's second place in last weekend's Long Walk Hurdle behind Big Buck's certainly felt like a victory. Not least because it was more or less exactly what I'd predicted. There was never a doubt that Paul Nicholls' Big Buck's would prevail but the 1-2 (or certainly this particular one) was not widely touted. The cynics will now ask why, if I was so certain of the forecast, did I not back it? But then that's like asking me to explain the dynamics of the Large Hadron Collider – I have no answer.

I do know, however, that betting on horses can produce much more significant returns than football, as evidenced by the relative alacrity with which Five Dream drifted from 33s to 66s over the course of two days. Indeed, it left this observer greedily eyeing the higher price and thinking of ways to claim it as my own.

Alas, I recommended Five Dream at 33s so I can't really expect the higher payout (I reserve the right to refer back to it ad nauseum in future columns, though).

At Christmas, the big races are as plentiful as turkey leftovers and particularly on Boxing Day when Kempton is the main attraction. Vying for top billing are the Christmas Hurdle and the King George IV Chase, of which the latter is the main event. This year's renewal pits an old hero in Kauto Star against Long Run, the horse attempting to steal his crown as best chaser since Arkle.

The perceived main challenger to that pair is Master Minded, the double winner of the Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham.

However, there is enough evidence to suggest that Captain Chris and Somersby have a chance while Nacarat has each-way pretensions.

Of the trio at the head of the betting there are minor doubts about their bids, though. Sam Waley-Cohen takes the ride on Long Run with question marks about the legitimacy of his participation in the race having taken the wrong course on his last ride at Fakenham, thus incurring a 12-day ban.

Indeed, Waley-Cohen is only riding Long Run due to a technicality which means that amateurs can only be suspended on days when there are amateur races – unlike conditional or professional jockeys. It's not the kind of doubt you want over a potential odds-on shot even if Waley-Cohen has won last year's race and a Gold Cup on board Long Run.

The minor niggle about Kauto Star is that he is now 11 and while a four-time winner of the race, it is horses in the six-to-nine-year-old category that have won every King George since 1990 with the exception of Edredon Bleu in 2003 – and the class of this race suggests a fifth victory is unlikely. That leaves Master Minded, but I have some concerns over his stamina.

The same doubts have been expressed over Captain Chris. However, this is a horse that has always looked as if it is an improving type and, furthermore, has a wonderful record at Kempton. His three wins have all come at the Middlesex venue and his first appearance at the course – his debut – ended in a fourth.

Long Run could win with a trained monkey on its back, and probably will, so Captain Chris without the Waley-Cohen horse is the selection.

Selection Captain Chris without Long Run (4/1, general)

Season's total -£45.03 (or -£12.03 with a 66/1 place!)