DEPENDING on who you talk to, this is either the beginning of the end for the Commonwealth Games movement or a time of startling new opportunities. Yesterday was international press briefing day for Gold Coast 2018 at the lavish surroundings of Australia House on the Strand, but for every bullish Aussie talking up next April's games and speaking of the renewed focus on the Commonwealth as a bulwark against Brexit, there was also a sceptic pointing at the chaotic bidding process for the 2022 event and drawing their own dire conclusions.

The race to host the games after next started with only two entrants, both of whom pulled up lame long before the finish line. Edmonton withdrew their bid before decision time, while Durban were stripped of hosting rights earlier this week after failing to meet funding criteria.

If having to shelve a long-held plan for a games in Africa and scrabble around for an alternative host is hardly ideal for Dave Grevemberg, the Scottish-based head of the Commonwealth Games Federation, the good news it that the Gold Coast games themselves should be a blast. The theme of their games is reconciliation with the long-neglected Aboriginal community and Ted Williams, a Yugambeh elder who is part of the bid team, couldn't resist a joke about the Brexit and IndyRef2 backdrop. "Why am I here? One word, reconciliation. I'm not sure your country is going through it, but ours is."

According to Williams, GOLDOC (the Gold Coast organising committee) are "fair dinkum" about reconciliation. The number of medals available to both men and women will be exactly the same for the first time in Commonwealth Games history, and the Aussies are clearly smarting at losing supremacy on the medal table to England at Glasgow 2014 and plotting their revenge. Some of their swimmers are even missing the world championships to focus on the Commonwealths. "We will have won the Ashes back by the time the games start so that will be another psychological boost," comes one wisecrack from the top table.

Of course the Gold Coast games will move at a different pace to Glasgow. For a start, they are only guaranteed 300 days of sunshine a year over there. But like three years ago, the showpiece is on target to be delivered on budget and on time.

Already, 13 months out, many of the venues are completed already - including a velodrome named after a recently retired Olympic hero, with Anna Meares cast in the role of Sir Chris Hoy. Negotiations are ongoing to ensure that Usain Bolt will be there in some capacity, even if he is just hanging out with the famous meter maids of Surfers Paradise. "If you are looking for disaster stories, sadly that is one thing we can't help you with," they claim.

Those looking for disaster stories yesterday didn't have to look too far to find them, mind you. Namely why, considering the Commonwealth now comprises one third of the world's population, with India predicted to be the biggest economy in the world by 2050, was the organisation plunged into such a predicament when it comes to finding a host for 2022? And what becomes of the lofty ideals of the Commonwealth movement to host a first-ever African games if, with even Canada counting their pennies, we are locked into a pattern of endless ping-ponging between Australia and the UK?

Firstly, it should be pointed out that this isn't entirely a Commonwealth Games problem. Cities, even major ones, are generally becoming less enthusiastic when it comes to bidding for major events, and more sensitive to public concerns at a time of austerity. Only Paris and Los Angeles are still standing in the bidding for the Olympics after Tokyo, with Hamburg, then Rome, falling by the wayside and Budapest withdrawing from the running last month after 250,000 people signed a petition opposing the move.

The Commonwealth Games knows it must adapt to survive and perhaps Glasgow 2014 may in time prove the one which broke the mould, and put an end to the model of the urban, one city, Commonwealth Games. Perhaps the short-term solution is the same as the long-term one: greater sharing of resources. Of the raft of Northern cities keen to step into the breach to rescue 2022, surely it would make more sense for Liverpool, Birmingham and Manchester to pool resources as joint hosts rather than land themselves with huge capital spends. That way Manchester could bring its velodrome to the party, while Birmingham could utilise the Alexander Stadium. The hotel room capacity of all three could be useful too, in order to avoid a major outlay on an athletes' village.

"We are interested in looking at different delivery models and part of our strategic plan is to look at more affordable and appealing structures for hosting major events," admitted Grevemberg yesterday, the man who gave you Glasgow 2014. "There is a possibility in the future that we could look at combined events but at this point in time we are trying to ensure we deliver the best possible Games in the best possible city."

On the collapse of the Durban bid, there had been "no changing of the goalposts or any additional demands." "It was simply adherence to the bid documentation and the commitments made during that process. We are absolutely committed to a games for Africa. Our entire membership in Edmonton recently reaffirmed that commitment."

Grevemberg still commutes to the bonny banks of Loch Lomond each week and feels sure that Scotland will have a role to play in the organisation's future. With the consensus that 2022 still feels too soon, perhaps a bid for the Commonwealth Youth Games - Scotland bid unsuccessfully for the Olympic youth games in 2018 - is more realistic. "I don't want to speculate too much on who has [expressed interest for 2022] and who hasn't," said Grevemberg. "But what has been reinforced to me over the last few weeks when there has been such a lot of speculation about the games is the enormous interest there has been in the games, in 2022 and beyond. [As for Scotland] I am very, very confident in the expressions of interest will manifest in a main games or a youth games in the future."

Beginning of the end, or a time of post-Brexit opportunity, three years on from Glasgow the Commonwealth Games Federation is very much an organisation at a crossroads. But the Gold Coast games will look after themselves. Their presentation ended with a typically Australian welcome. "We are not going to use the techniques we used in 1780 to get you to come ... but if need be we are prepared to give them serious consideration."