AS soon as the Murrayfield mandarins moved to align the contracts of their most senior coaches so that they reached their conclusion at the end of next season, the speculation started.

Was Vern Cotter, the Scotland head coach, for the chop despite what was generally seen as a successful World Cup? If he was, then was it too early in his career for Gregor Townsend to take over?

We now know the answer to both questions. "Yes" and "no" respectively.

Read more: Gregor Townsend to move to Murrayfield next summer

Bye bye Cotter, hello Townsend. For once all those demanding that there has to be more Scottish influence in the Scotland national team can start cheering because they have got their way.The Herald: Glasgow coach Gregor Townsend. Picture: SNS

Ever since Townsend took Glasgow Warriors to the Guinness PRO12 title in 2015, it was obvious that when it came to taking charge of the Scotland side, the question was when, not if.

He has only been a full-time coach for seven years, though his final two years as a player at the Borders had also involved some coaching, and his first two years after retirement also helped steer his path to the future, both with the Winning Scotland Foundation and part-time roles with Edinburgh, Scotland A and sometimes even the national side.

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On the flip side of his cv, it is not as though his first taste of coaching saw him cover himself in glory. First with Frank Hadden as the head coach before Andy Robinson took over, Townsend was in charge of the backs but 28 tries in 34 games did not shout: "here's a highly imaginative, innovative coach who must get a shot at the big time".

Somehow, however, the that is the message those in charge at Murrayfield seem to have heard, and before the end of the 2011/12 season the Scottish game was rocked by the revelation that Sean Lineen was to be replaced as coach at Glasgow Warriors by Townsend, whatever people thought of his track record.The Herald: Glasgow Warriors head coach Gregor Townsend. Picture: SNS

We know the rest. Three years of reasonably consistent performances in the PRO12, going from losing semi-finalists in the first year, to losing finalist in the second and champions in the third. All while playing the kind of rugby Townsend favoured as a player. Exciting, off the cuff, imaginative, enjoyable both to watch and be part of.

There is a flip side, though and it may come as a warning before he steps up to the Scotland role he will take on next season. When the team had to step up a level to take on the bigger and better funded sides in the European Champions Cup, they failed – played 24, won nine, lost 15 and have still never qualified for the quarter-finals.

There have been some famous one-off wins on the way – beating Racing 92 in Kilmarnock last season, thrashing Bath at Scotstoun, winning away in Montpellier – but when Townsend moves into the top job he has to show he can produce a side that can win consistently at the highest level. The one-off win will not be acceptable.

Inevitably, there have already been demands that if the change of guard needs to be done, it would be best done quickly. Cotter, in particular, is in an impossible position with the players knowing he has eight more games and then it is farewell Stern Vern and a welcome for the much more cuddly management style Townsend brings. Cotter was, however, in a similar position when he left Clermont Auvergne and they reached both the European and Top14 semi finals before he signed off.

Don't be surprised if he goes before the end of the year if the November games are a bit of a shambles, but the Scottish Rugby Union will try to stick to their original plan having had their fingers burned too often in recent years when they were forced to appoint interim coaches to take charge of Scotland and Edinburgh. They don't want to do it again.

Scott Johnson's five wins in 16 matches as interim coach while we waited for Cotter is the second worst record of any coach in the professional era – beaten only by Matt Williams – and nobody can claim Edinburgh fared well under any of their plethora of interim coaches over the last decade before Alan Solomons brought some stability.

What is totally unclear from the SRU annoucnement – done by press release without anybody being put up to talk about it – is which way round the decision was made. Did they decide they needed to keep Townsend – who has been hot property ever since Glasgow won the PRO12 and has been linked with a number of big-money jobs in England and France – and the only way to do that was to promote him? Or did they decide Cotter had been a mistake and see Townsend as the best candidate to repalce him?

Either way, it is a gamble. Townsend is enough of a student of the game to know that club achievements don't matter at Test level, which is a much less forgiving environment.