FORGET the permutations. Ignore the plethora of possibilities. Glasgow Warriors want to take the most direct route possible to the Champions Cup quarter-finals, by beating Munster today and Leicester next week and so finishing top of pool one.
Of course, they will hardly turn down a place in the last eight if they lose one of those games and end up as one of the three best second-placed teams from the five pools. But, as Ryan Wilson said yesterday, they have no interest in speculating on circuitous routes to the last eight. They want to confront Munster head on, then do the same at Welford Road a week later, and if the back-row forward is anything to go by, they are in a confident frame of mind as they approach the biggest game of the season so far.
“We’re in the best position we’ve ever been in in Europe,” Wilson said yesterday after being named at openside for this evening’s match at Scotstoun. “And we know that if we go out and win tonight then we have just one game down at Leicester, and we’re all confident we can go and win down there to get the points we need to go through.
“If we win this weekend and stop Munster from getting the bonus point, or win with a bonus point, then we know there’s a good chance we could go through. But we want a home quarter-final. That’s what we’re going for.”
Munster have a three-point lead over Glasgow with two games to go, while Leicester, although five points behind the Warriors, are not out of the hunt yet. The Irishmen have already beaten Glasgow twice this season, in the PRO12 just a few weeks ago when both sides were understrength, and in the Champions Cup when they were playing for the first time since the sudden death of their coach Anthony Foley.
Gregor Townsend has named a starting line-up for this match consisting of 15 Scotland internationals, although there is no place for scrum-half Henry Pyrgos, who injured a knee against Treviso two weeks ago. Italian cap Simone Favaro has also been ruled out by injury, but the Warriors team is still close to full strength for a game that could see them take a massive step towards the quarter-finals.
“We know Munster well,” the Glasgow coach said. “We know that they’re a very good side in great form, so we’ll require the aggression, the effort, the accuracy of the best we’ve ever put together this season.
“Defensively they’ve been outstanding, with the best defensive record in our league and I think Europe. They’re one of the quality teams in Europe.”
While Munster beat Glasgow well in Limerick back in the autumn, the biggest game in recent years between the two was the 2015 PRO12 final in Belfast, which Glasgow won 31-13. Townsend expects today’s match to be far tighter than either of those games.
“You’ve got to play the full 80 minutes close to your best. We’ve been involved in real battles with them, games that have gone to the last play. The semi-final [in 2014] was the standout, but sometimes we’ve had the upper hand and sometimes they have, like the game earlier this year.
“Take out the Thomond Park game this year and the PRO12 final, and all the other games have been really close. Here, we were leading with three or four minutes to go and they got a drop goal to win. During the World Cup we got a drop goal with two minutes left and they won with the last kick of the game.
“We enjoy the battles against them, but we know they’re an opposition who will keep fighting for 80 minutes. But we do that as well.”
Glasgow Warriors (against Munster at Scotstoun today, 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports): S Hogg; T Seymour, M Bennett, A Dunbar, L Jones; F Russell, A Price; G Reid, F Brown, Z Fagerson, T Swinson, J Gray, R Harley, R Wilson, J Strauss. Substitutes: P MacArthur, A Allan, D Rae, M Fagerson, C Fusaro, G Hart, N Grigg, P Murchie.
Munster: S Zebo; A Conway, J Taute, R Scannell, K Earls; T Bleyendaal, C Murray; D Kilcoyne, N Scannell, J Ryan, J Kleyn, D Ryan, P O'Mahony, J O'Donoghue, C Stander. Substitutes: R Marshall, J Cronin, T du Toit, D Foley, W Holland, D Williams, I Keatley, F Saili.
Tournament organisers EPCR announced yesterday that the final of this season’s Champions Cup, at Murrayfield on Saturday 13 May, will kick off at 5pm. The final of the Challenge Cup the night before at the same venue will kick off at 8pm.
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