IF, as expected, there are only three or four Scots in the Lions squad to be announced today, we can have little cause for complaint. Of the dozen or so who were seen as contenders at the start of the year, some have been ruled out through injury and others have under-performed.
If we are looking for a grievance, however - and let’s be honest, by this time we’re used to having a good moan about a Lions squad - it will surely be found in the preferences made by head coach Warren Gatland. Accepting that Jonny Gray, say, has not done quite enough to book a seat on the plane to New Zealand is one thing: accepting that certain other locks should go instead of him is quite another.
Let’s start with the Scots. Back in January, with both Glasgow and Edinburgh having qualified for the European quarter-finals, there were grounds for belief that Scotland could have its biggest representation on a Lions tour since 1997, when Tom Smith, Alan Tait, Gregor Townsend, Rob Wainwright and Doddie Weir were all in the original selection for what turned out to be a winning series against the Springboks.
From the No 1 jersey all the way back to 15, our leading contenders were: Alasdair Dickinson, Willem Nel, Jonny and Richie Gray, John Hardie, Greig Laidlaw, Finn Russell, Duncan Taylor, Tommy Seymour, Sean Maitland and Stuart Hogg. Either then or once the Six Nations was under way, we could have added Huw Jones and Hamish Watson.
Injury put paid to Dickinson and Nel before the tournament, and Taylor missed some games in it for the same reason. Laidlaw is now close to a comeback after being out since the defeat in Paris, and Hardie was injured in the same game. Jones, meanwhile, damaged a hamstring in the win over Italy and is still several months away from playing again.
Scotland’s three home wins represented a real improvement on the previous season, and the victories over Ireland and Wales surely counted for something given Gatland’s publicly stated view that head-to-head contests in the Championship had to have an influence on the Lions selectors. But the head coach also stressed the importance of players showing they had the strength of character to win away from home - understandably given his squad are about to play a series in the toughest rugby environment on the planet. And, while Scotland were close enough in the Stade de France to pick up a losing bonus point, they were a miserable 40 points off the pace at Twickenham, where only Jones, with his two tries, could conceivably be said to have advanced his cause.
The European quarter-finals were billed as the last real chance for players to stake a claim, and again, leading Scots did not do enough. Jonny Gray was injured in the first half of Glasgow’s defeat by Saracens, while other than a neat kick for Lee Jones’ try, Russell did not show off his defence-unlocking skills at anything like their best. Edinburgh lost to La Rochelle in one of their typically frustrating performances in which they only start to play well once they are a couple of scores down, but, as has happened many times in this most miserable of seasons for them, Watson was outstanding in adversity.
It is that admirable resilience, that bursting-with-health immunity to the demoralisation which has affected his team-mates, that has led to the openside flanker being talked about as a wildcard option for Gatland. Even if selected today, Watson will be some way off from a Test place, but his mental fortitude and physical dynamism will ensure that he won’t let anyone down.
Like Watson, Taylor has been talked about as a potential extra Scot, and he has versatility on his side given he can play on the wing as well as at centre. Ahead of him, there are two of the names from 2013, Hogg and Maitland, and, probably as an alternative to the latter, Seymour.
For a variety of reasons, then, most Scottish candidates for selection have been ruled out. It remains to be seen whether Wales’s contenders are treated by the same strict criteria, or whether Gatland decides that, on a short tour, those players already familiar with his system have a value beyond what their current form would suggest.
Of course, the head coach is entitled to look further back than this year’s Six Nations, and to assess how well candidates played over the longer term. From that perspective, it is hard to argue that there should be more than a minimal representation of Scots, because, while Wales, Ireland and England have won two championships apiece in the last half-dozen years, Scotland’s record is last, third, fifth, sixth, fourth and fourth.
Having said that, if there are only two or three Scots in the squad, and around three times as many Welshmen, we will be entitled to query the wisdom of Gatland’s selectorial policy. Indeed, such a low number for the fifth tour in succession would lead many Scots not only to become a touch disgruntled, but to become disillusioned with the whole Lions project.
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