Two years ago, Andy Robinson sat among a huddle of journalists in the Scotland team hotel in the faded seaside resort of Mar del Plata, 150 miles south of Buenos Aires, where his side had just beaten Argentina 13-9.

It was Scotland's third win in a row, and meant Robinson had become the first national coach to lead the team to an overseas Test series victory. Unsurprisingly, the atmosphere at the gathering was upbeat.

His message, however, was anything but. With the kind of measured realism that would have gladdened the heart of Jim Telfer, a man whose intensity Robinson often appears to match, the coach spelled out the realities for Scottish rugby. It was no time for wild triumphalism, he argued. The ground gained had been modest. Scotland still had to run to stand still.

Robinson's words seemed needlessly stern at the time, but their truth became clear little more than four months later when Scotland met New Zealand at Murrayfield. That run of three victories, coupled with the fact the All Blacks had misfired badly in recent matches, meant confidence was high in the Scotland camp. There was talk of the prospect of a first victory over New Zealand.

The All Blacks hadn't read the script. It was hardly the most brutal performance by the world champions in waiting, but it was emphatic enough on the scoreboard. Scotland lost 49-3, their meagre haul coming from a solitary Dan Parks penalty while New Zealand, who were almost strolling in the final quarter, ran in seven tries.

It's ancient history now, but worth recalling in light of a 2012 summer tour in which Robinson has restored some Scottish pride, as well as his own reputation, with three straight wins. After a season billed as the worst in Scottish rugby history – a pool-stage exit from the World Cup followed by an RBS 6 Nations whitewash – this was the tonic the troops who have followed the side through thick and thin, with much more of the latter recently, were waiting for.

The trio of away victories inevitably invites comparisons with 2010. But so, too, should the fact that Scotland's next game is against New Zealand at Murrayfield on November 11.

Indeed, the parallels are made even stronger by the fact Robinson's side will then face South Africa the following weekend, just as they did two years ago. Scotland may have chosen the line of least resistance in plotting their summer tour schedule, but you could hardly say that of their autumn engagements.

But the real significance of the November games, when Scotland will also face Tonga at Pittodrie, lies in the impact they have on the world rankings. Those figures, which were once of merely academic interest, have taken on far greater importance since the International Rugby Board decided to start using them as the basis of their World Cup pool seedings.

As the seedings for the 2015 tournament will be based on rankings at the end of this year, the holy grail for Scotland is to get into the top eight, thereby avoiding the fate that befell them at last year's tournament when they were put in the same pool as England and Argentina. When the rankings are published tomorrow, they should show Scotland in ninth place. As they lay 12th only a month ago, that represents considerable progress, but moving up one more place could be devilishly difficult. Scotland's best hope of doing that may lie in the performances of other sides this autumn. If either Ireland or France lose more ground then the Scots could yet grab the position they covet.

Robinson's predecessor Frank Hadden was undone by his failure to get Scotland into that elite. Robinson's muted reaction to yesterday's win in Apia owed something to the stuttering nature of Scotland's performance, but more, you suspect, to his appreciation of the bigger picture.

And yet, there are still huge positives to be taken from the tour. The blooding of five players – Ryan Grant, Rob Harley, Tom Brown, Tom Ryder and Tim Visser – has been a seamless and successful process and Robinson can take huge satisfaction from the strength in depth of his squad. But just as he did in Argentina two years ago, he will be keeping the champagne on ice for a good while yet.